Understanding large-scale patterns in student course enrollment is a problem of great interest to university administrators and educational researchers. Yet important decisions are often made without a good quantitative framework of the process underlying student choices. We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling course enrollment…

Stan is a new Bayesian statistical software program that implements the powerful and efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. To date there is not a source that systematically provides Stan code for various item response theory (IRT) models. This article provides Stan code for three representative IRT models, including the…

Biomodeling is the study of the structures and behaviors of interacting biological entities such as molecules, cells, or organisms. While physical and chemical processes give rise to various spatial and temporal structures, even the simplest biological phenomenon is infinitely more complex (Kling 2004). Over the past decade, much of biomodeling…

Instead of reserving the study of probability and statistics for special fourth-year high school courses, the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (CCSSM) takes a "statistics for all" approach. The standards recommend that students in grades 6-8 learn to summarize and describe data distributions, understand probability, draw…

Propensity score analysis (PSA) is a methodological technique which may correct for selection bias in a quasi-experiment by modeling the selection process using observed covariates. Because logistic regression is well understood by researchers in a variety of fields and easy to implement in a number of popular software packages, it has…

The effect of simulation-based probability teaching on the prospective teachers' inference skills has been examined with this research. In line with this purpose, it has been aimed to examine the design, implementation and efficiency of a learning environment for experimental probability. Activities were built on modeling, simulation and the…

On the basis of the statistical concept of waiting time and on computer simulations of the "probabilities of nonoccurrence" (p. 457) for random sequences, Hahn and Warren (2009) proposed that given people's experience of a finite data stream from the environment, the gambler's fallacy is not as gross an error as it might seem. We deal with two…

A challenging problem in some developing countries such as Nigeria is inadequate training of students in effective problem solving using the core concepts of their disciplines. Related to this is a disconnection between their learning and socio-economic development agenda of a country. These problems are more vivid in statistical education which…

Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…

A truncated version of the Cauchy distribution is introduced. Unlike the Cauchy distribution, this possesses finite moments of all orders and could therefore be a better model for certain practical situations. One such situation in finance is discussed. Explicit expressions for the moments of the truncated distribution are also derived.

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

B. De Finetti's "Fundamental Theorem of Probability" is reformulated as a computable linear programming problem. The theorem is substantially extended, and shown to have fundamental implications for the theory and practice of statistics. It supports an operational meaning for the partial assertion of prevision via asserted bounds. The…

Swets' theory of information retrieval allows the threads of document weighting formulae, probabilistic measures of effectiveness, and management theory, to be woven into a coherent pattern. Benefits are: the beginnings of a quantitative description of retrieval languages; destinction between retrieval systems and language; and question generality…

Proposes a probabilistic mechanism to describe various forms of the Bradford phenomenon reported in bibliographic research. The inclusion of a time parameter in the model to allow predictions of dynamic systems is explained. (58 references) (CLB)