Recent methods have sought to improve precision in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by utilizing data from large observational datasets for covariate adjustment. For example, consider an RCT aimed at evaluating a new algebra curriculum, in which a few dozen schools are randomly assigned to treatment (new curriculum) or control (standard…

Critiques violence prediction via methods for quantifying accuracy that fail to control for base rates or biases and describes how receiver-operating characteristic analysis can compensate. Via reanalysis of datasets from previously published studies suggests that mental health professionals' violence predictions are substantially more accurate…