Constructing a computational model of conceptual change for a computer-based scientific inquiry learning environment is difficult due to two challenges: (i) externalizing the variables of conceptual change and its related variables is difficult. In addition, defining the causal dependencies among the variables is also not trivial. Such difficulty…

The purpose of this paper is to provide information about how students' scores change when they retake the PSAT/NMSQT as juniors or take the SAT in the spring after they take the PSAT/NMSQT as juniors. Two research questions guided this study and motivated the approach for analysis of the data: How do scores change for students who took the…

A specific application of a general paradigm described by R. D. Cook (1986) and R. McCulloch (1985) in assessing local influence is given. Snow geese flock size is estimated as "X" by an observer and "Y" by a photograph. "Y" is believed to be the true flock size. The problem is to obtain true flock size "Z"…

The predictive analysis approach to adaptive testing originated in the idea of statistical predictive analysis suggested by J. Aitchison and I.R. Dunsmore (1975). The adaptive testing model proposed is based on parameter-free predictive distribution. Aitchison and Dunsmore define statistical prediction analysis as the use of data obtained from an…

The feasibility and effectiveness of a Bayesian method for estimating regressions in m groups is studied by application of the method to data from the Basic Research Service of The American College Testing Program. Evidence supports the belief that in many testing applications the collateral information obtained from each subset of m-1 colleges…

A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be identified as a specific configuration of one or…

The purpose of this study was to present and evaluate Bayesian-type models for estimating probabilities of program completion and for predicting first quarter grade point averages of community college students entering certain allied health fields. Two Bayesian models were tested. Bayesian Model 1--Estimating Probabilities of Program…

The principal objectives of this conference were to exchange information, discuss theoretical and empirical developments, and to coordinate research efforts. The papers and their authors are: "The Graded Response Model of Latent Trait Theory and Tailored Testing" by Fumiko Samejima; (Incomplete Orders and Computerized Testing" by…