This study elaborates on the pivotal roles of mathematical and statistical models in data-driven predictions in an integrated STEM context using the case of Year 4 students: (?) "a descriptive means" to describe the features of trends and variability of data and (?) "an explanatory means" to explain causal relationships behind…

Obtaining reliable and timely estimates of migration flows is critical for advancing the migration theory and guiding policy decisions, but it remains a challenge. Digital data provide granular information on time and space, but do not draw from representative samples of the population, leading to biased estimates. We propose a method for…

In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to…

The relevance of the research problem Urban district, management, trade, sales network is determined by the number of complex problems that exist in present Samara municipal retail trade system, which is manifested in the lack of regulation, a glut of sales area, and poorly developed infrastructure. The purpose of this article is to form a…

There is substantial variability in the degree to which the SAT and high school grade point average (HSGPA) predict first-year college performance at different institutions. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of multilevel modeling as a tool to uncover institutional characteristics that are associated with this variability. In a model that…

Proposes a probabilistic mechanism to describe various forms of the Bradford phenomenon reported in bibliographic research. The inclusion of a time parameter in the model to allow predictions of dynamic systems is explained. (58 references) (CLB)

The assumptions of the model for factor analysis do not exclude a class of indeterminate covariances between factors and error variables (Grayson, 2003). The construction of all factors of the model for factor analysis is generalized to incorporate indeterminate factor-error covariances. A necessary and sufficient condition is given for…

In an attempt to bridge the gap between academic understanding and practical business use, the Box-Jenkins technique of time series analysis for forecasting future events is presented with a minimum of mathematical notation. The method is presented in three stages: a discussion of traditional forecasting techniques, focusing on traditional…

The behavior of focus samples central to the multiple-look model of Trabasso and Bower is examined by three methods. First, exact probabilities of success conditional upon a certain brief history of stimulation are determined. Second, possible states of the organism during the experiment are defined and a transition matrix for those states…

A general model for prediction and association is described for the situation in which both criterion and predictor(s) are discrete variables. The approach can be employed for the general case involving any number of predictors, and the related measures of multiple and partial association are described. (Author/GK)

Recent mathematical descriptions of Bradford's distribution, and a new formulation that provides a more accurate estimation of the total number of papers and sources on a given scientific subject are presented. (Author/MBR)

Mathematical models can assist educators in the preparation of their educational plans. Administrators and planners of educational systems have found that their ad hoc procedures are no longer adequate to take into account the many variables impinging on their environment. Examines the potential of the Markov Chain, one model capable of predicting…

Reports a solution to the problem of providing annual grade enrollment projections by use of an exponential smoothing model. (Author)

Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

Annual funds face pressures to contact all alumni to maximize participation, but these efforts are costly. This paper uses a logistic regression model to predict likely donors among alumni from the College of Arts & Humanities at the University of Maryland, College Park. Alumni were grouped according to their predicted probability of donating…