This study compared Stepwise Logistic Regression (Stepwise-LR) and three machine learning (ML) methods--Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Generalized Boosted Modeling (GBM) for estimating propensity scores (PS) applied in causal inference. A simulation study was conducted considering factors of the sample size,…

Scholars and legal practitioners of voting rights are concerned with estimating individual-level voting behavior from aggregate-level data. The most commonly used technique, King's ecological inference (EI), has been questioned for inflexibility in multiethnic settings or with multiple candidates. One method for estimating vote support for…

Mediation has played a critical role in developmental theory and research. Yet, developmentalists rarely discuss the methodological challenges of establishing causality in mediation analysis or potential strategies to improve the identification of causal mediation effects. In this article, we discuss the potential outcomes framework from…

We consider two-level models where a continuous response R and continuous covariates C are assumed missing at random. Inferences based on maximum likelihood or Bayes are routinely made by estimating their joint normal distribution from observed data R[subscript obs] and C[subscript obs]. However, if the model for R given C includes random…

Drawing causal inference with observational studies is the central pillar of many disciplines. One sufficient condition for identifying the causal effect is that the treatment-outcome relationship is unconfounded conditional on the observed covariates. It is often believed that the more covariates we condition on, the more plausible this…

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

This article suggests two alternative statistical approaches for estimating student growth percentiles (SGP). The first is to estimate percentile ranks of current test scores conditional on past test scores directly, by modeling the conditional cumulative distribution functions, rather than indirectly through quantile regressions. This would…

Researchers have proposed that an explicit reasoning system is responsible for learning rule-based category structures and that a separate implicit, procedural-learning system is responsible for learning information-integration category structures. As evidence for this multiple-system hypothesis, researchers report a dissociation based on…

Recent explosive growth of interconnected document collections such as citation networks, network of web pages, content generated by crowd-sourcing in collaborative environments, etc., has posed several challenging problems for data mining and machine learning community. One central problem in the domain of document networks is that of "link…

Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides…

My dissertation contains three studies centering on the question: how to motivate people to share high quality information on online information aggregation systems, also known as social computing systems? I take a social scientific approach to "identify" the strategic behavior of individuals in information systems, and "analyze" how non-monetary…

In this note, a coin tossing experiment which leads to three discrete distributions is discussed.

It is shown that Bayesian algorithms are computationally simpler in frequency formats than in the probability formats used in previous research. Analysis of several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems showed that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of inferences by Bayesian…

Introductory statistics texts give extensive coverage to two-sided inferences in hypothesis testing, interval estimation, and one-sided hypothesis tests. Very few discuss the possibility of one-sided interval estimation at all. Even fewer do so in any detail. Two of the business statistics texts we reviewed mentioned the possibility of dividing…

This article explores the uses of a simulation model (the two bucket story)--implemented by a stand-alone computer program, or an Excel workbook (both on the web)--that can be used for deriving bootstrap confidence intervals, and simulating various probability distributions. The strengths of the model are its generality, the fact that it provides…