Understanding large-scale patterns in student course enrollment is a problem of great interest to university administrators and educational researchers. Yet important decisions are often made without a good quantitative framework of the process underlying student choices. We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling course enrollment…

Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…

A measure of the usefulness of a pass/fail testing decision procedure is the ratio of the utility of the given procedure to the utility of a procedure based on knowledge of scores on a criterion measure. It is computed from scores for a representative sample of persons tested. Utility functions may be specified by the test user or set by…

Approaches to the determination of cut-scores have used threshold, normal ogive, linear and discrete utility functions. These approaches are examined by investigating conditions on the posterior, likelihood and utility functions required for setting cut-scores in a Bayesian approach. (Author/JKS)

The mathematical models of this paper were developed as an outgrowth of working with the Comprehensive Achievement Monitoring project (Project CAM) which was conceived as a model and application of sampling procedures such as those used in industrial quality control techniques to educational measurement. This paper explores mathematical modeling…

Data accumulated over two years were analyzed in order to evaluate two components of a teacher education curriculum--performance objectives and self analysis skills. A multi-step procedure was devised and implemented which uses regression to illustrate the feasibility of implementing the procedure for curricular decision making. This procedure…

A decision-theoretic procedure is outlined which provides a framework within which Bayesian statistical methods can be employed with criterion-referenced tests to improve the quality of decision making in objectives based instructional programs. (Author/DEP)

Performance testing often entails the usage of expensive, time-consuming measures in the quest for determining the level of performance on some desired behavior. It is concluded that a generalizability theory approach to dealing with departures from reality in testing can aid in the establishment of empirically-based choices of measurement…

In this rejoinder, the authors respond to the insightful commentary of Strohmer and Arm, Chwalisz, and Hilton, Harris, and Rice about the meta-analysis on statistical versus clinical prediction techniques for mental health judgments. The authors address issues including the availability of statistical prediction techniques for real-life psychology…

A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

This dissertation begins with a description of some methods employed in making public-sector resource-allocation decisions, with conclusions on the appropriateness of each method for evaluating the ongoing programs of a school system. The second section has been rewritten and published as "A Comprehensive Theory of Cost-Effectiveness" (EA 002…

A study used correlational analysis and step-wise multiple regression to build mathematical models representing the dynamics of student evaluation of courses and teachers. The resulting models were very strong and were subsequently used to improve academic programs in Kuwait's Institute of Banking Studies. (Author/MSE)

The Mastery-Learning test model is extended. Methods for estimating prior probabilities are described. The use of an adjustment matrix to transform a probability of mastery measure and empirical methods for estimating adjustment matrix parameters are derived. Adjustment matrices are interpreted as indicators of instructional effectiveness and as…