Predictive studies have been widely undertaken in the field of education to provide strategic information about the extensive set of processes related to teaching and learning, as well as about what variables predict certain educational outcomes, such as academic achievement or dropout. As in any other area, there is a set of standard techniques…

This article shows that the mean and covariance structure of the predetermined autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model are very flexible. As a result, the shape of the modeled growth curve can be quite different from what one might expect at first glance. This is illustrated with several numerical examples that show that, for example, a…

A specific application of a general paradigm described by R. D. Cook (1986) and R. McCulloch (1985) in assessing local influence is given. Snow geese flock size is estimated as "X" by an observer and "Y" by a photograph. "Y" is believed to be the true flock size. The problem is to obtain true flock size "Z"…

A number of statistical procedures that were developed in 1983 at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey-Rutgers Medical School to verify the suspicion that a student cheated during an examination are described. (MLW)

This article reconsiders the issue of clinical versus statistical prediction. The term clinical is widely used to denote 1 pole of 2 independent axes: the observer whose data are being aggregated (clinician/expert vs. lay) and the method of aggregating those data (impressionistic vs. statistical). Fifty years of research suggests that when…

For much of the twentieth century, Markov theory and Markov processes have been widely accepted as valid ways to view statistical variables and parameters. In the complex realm of online searching, where researchers are always seeking the route to the best search strategies and the most powerful query terms and sequences, Markov process analysis…

The number of regression studies being employed in sex discrimination cases is increasing. The need for caution in the case of multiple regression must be emphasized. Statistical concerns in sex discrimination cases are highlighted. (MLW)

In their meta-analysis of clinical versus statistical prediction models, Aegisdottir et al. (this issue) extended previous findings of statistical-method superiority across such variables as clinicians' experience and familiarity with data. In this reaction, the authors are particularly interested in violence prediction, which yields the greatest…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

Describes the practice of federal evaluation of research impact through three approaches: retrospective methods; qualitative methods, including peer review; and quantitative methods. Recommended areas for study in federal research impact assessment are suggested, including predictive reliability, comparative studies, time and cost estimates,…

A procedure for developing a nomogram that depicts expectancy of success on a criterion from performance on two predictors is presented. Data from 574 medical students attending Michigan State University College of Human Medicine's classes of 1979 through 1984 were used to develop a model for predicting the expectancy of success on Part I of the…

A Markov chain is used to model the movement of undergraduates through the higher education system in Australia. Given the student's age on commencing a course of study, the model provides estimates of the probability of course completion, mean time for completion, and mean time spent in the higher education system. (Author/MSE)

Rectifies the unsatisfactory textbook treatment of the finite-sample proprieties of estimators of regression models with a lagged dependent variable and autocorrelated disturbances. Maintains that the bias of the ordinary least squares estimator is determined by the dynamic and correlation effects. (MJP)

This eighth annual Student Outcome and Achievement Report (SOAR) provides information that can be used to track high school student outcomes at the state level. The SOAR system collects information about college performance of new high school graduates in Maryland, including: remedial work needed in math, English, and reading; grades in first math…

This seventh annual Student Outcome and Achievement Report (SOAR) provides information that can be used to track high school student outcomes at the state level. The SOAR system collects information about college performance of new high school graduates including: remedial work needed in math, English, and reading; grades in first math and English…