Obtaining reliable and timely estimates of migration flows is critical for advancing the migration theory and guiding policy decisions, but it remains a challenge. Digital data provide granular information on time and space, but do not draw from representative samples of the population, leading to biased estimates. We propose a method for…

In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to…

In order to increase students' awareness for and comfort with mathematical modeling of biological processes, and increase their understanding of diffusion, the following lab was developed for use in 100-level, majors/non-majors biology and neuroscience courses. The activity begins with generation of a data set that uses coin-flips to replicate…

There has been much research and discussion on the principles of standards-based grading, and there is a growing consensus of best practice. Even so, the actual process of implementing standards-based grading at a school or district level can be a significant challenge. There are very practical questions that remain unclear, such as how the grades…

The force-frequency relationship has intrigued researchers since its discovery by Bowditch in 1871. Many attempts have been made to construct mathematical descriptions of this phenomenon, beginning with the simple formulation of Koch-Wesser and Blinks in 1963 to the most sophisticated ones of today. This property of cardiac muscle is amplified by…

The authors propose the idea of threaded cognition, an integrated theory of concurrent multitasking--that is, performing 2 or more tasks at once. Threaded cognition posits that streams of thought can be represented as threads of processing coordinated by a serial procedural resource and executed across other available resources (e.g., perceptual…

People tend to perceive ongoing continuous activity as series of discrete events. This partitioning of continuous activity may occur, in part, because events correspond to dynamic patterns that have recurred across different contexts. Recurring patterns may lead to reliable sequential dependencies in observers' experiences, which then can be used…

The procedure was to isolate the component variables and then to formulate the logical and mathematical rules governing their interaction. Students were classified by age, grade, and sex; also, their entry to, movement through, and graduation from the system were examined. (Author)

While it is imperative that attempts be made to assess the predictive accuracy of any prediction model, traditional measures of predictive accuracy have been criticized as suffering from "the base rate problem." The base rate refers to the relative frequency of occurrence of the event being studied in the population of interest, and the…

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This volume contains papers, presented at a 1966 OECD meeting, on the possibilities of applying a number of related techniques such as mathematical model building, simulation, and systematic control theory to the problems of educational planning. The authors and their papers are (1) Richard Stone, "A View of the Conference," (2) Hector…

This paper explains some of the problems with, and their importance to the application of, the Cross-Impact Matrix (CIM). The CIM is a research method designed to serve as a heuristic device to enhance a person's ability to think about the future and as an analytical device to be used by planners to help in actually forecasting future occurrences.…

The dynamic linear model or Kalman filtering model provides a useful methodology for predicting the past, present, and future states of a dynamic system, such as an object in motion or an economic or social indicator that is changing systematically with time. Recursive likelihood methods for adaptive Kalman filtering and smoothing are developed.…

Researchers are now attempting to improve techniques for studying stable behavior patterns in family systems over long periods of time, e.g., the marital dyad across several levels of function and dysfunction covering time periods of months to years. One approach to improving this research design is based on the assumptions that longitudinal…

Describes a problem formulated by fourth-grade students about having more pizza for lunch, and the clarifying, predicting, modeling, simulating, comparing, and extending activities that occurred in addressing the problem from a probabilistic perspective. (MKR)