This paper addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using realistic performance measurement system schemes based on hypothesis testing, we develop error rate formulas based on OLS and Empirical Bayes estimators.…

In educational testing, subscores may be provided based on a portion of the items from a larger test. One consideration in evaluation of such subscores is their ability to predict a criterion score. Two limitations on prediction exist. The first, which is well known, is that the coefficient of determination for linear prediction of the criterion…

A computer simulation procedure was developed to reproduce the overall pattern of results obtained in the Educational Testing Service Growth Study. Then simulated data for seven sets of 10,000 to 15,000 cases were analyzed, and findings compared on the basis of correlations between estimated and true growth scores. Findings showed that growth was…