Should one be more confident when predicting the whole (or an event based on a larger sample) from the part (or an event based on a smaller sample) than when predicting the reverse? The relevant literature on judgment under uncertainty argues that such predictions are symmetrical but that, as an empirical matter, people often fail to appreciate…

A review of cross-validation shrinkage formulas is presented which focuses on the theoretical and practical problems in the use of various formulas. Practical guidelines for use of both formulas and empirical cross-validation are provided. A comparison of results using these formulas in a range of situations is then presented. The result of these…

Describes and evaluates a circuitless flow model for forecasting future student attributes and enrollment projections, compared with a simple Markov chain model. Data from a study of secondary students are used to illustrate the analytical methodologies and to contrast results of the Markov chain and circuitless flow models. (JG)

The scientist who uses the experimental form does so in order to explain that which is verified through prediction. The prerequisites for prediction include a universe that is ordered, stable, independent, and knowable. Some assumptions of the predictive argument with respect to communication research are: the operating elements of the message are…

This paper discusses two approaches that are well adapted to school district enrollment forecasting and related planning studies. The author focuses in turn on two enrollment forecasting methods--the Analytical Simulation Approach, and the Modified Cohort Survival Approach. After briefly describing each forecasting method, he presents a short case…

See EJ 030 570. (CK)

This study compared two subgroups of trade and technical teachers to determine whether or not any biographical differences existed. (Author/GB)

Rebuts the claims of Trusheim and Crouse, made in an earlier issue, that Scholastic Aptitude Test scores are no more effective predictors of college success than is high school class rank. Discusses inaccuracies in the data used by Trusheim and Crouse and points out errors in their analyses. (PGD)

Most personality tests are based on concepts assessing typical performance, and tests of this sort have not been generally successful in predicting criterion behaviors with useful levels of efficiency. Ability tests, which call for maximal performance, have been much more successful as predictors of criterion outcomes. (Editor)

The diagnostic accuracy of nonadjusted and bootstrapped diagnosis was compared using a sample of 1,455 psychiatric patients who completed the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory. The usefulness of bootstrapping depended on the criteria for accuracy. Conditions under which bootstrapping might increase diagnostic accuracy are detailed. (SLD)

Characterized the methodology of case studies, using examples from science education, with regard to their potential for the analysis of innovation and formulation of emerging trends. The theoretical and empirical support of evaluation will generate a call for negotiation as the formula that regulates the assessment of a program's efficiency and…

Older persons are living longer and healthier and, thus, are capable of being more productive and less dependent. Despite this trend, young people persistently hold the age-old negative stereotypes about older persons. The goals of this study were to develop a valid, reliable measure of social values of older people and to assess its utility as…

General strain theory (GST) was tested as an explanation of violent and status offense delinquency of South Korean girls and boys. One research objective was to determine whether Korean girls and boys differed in their experience of each type of strain and in the levels of conditioning effects that might moderate the connections of strain to…

The paper describes instruments for determining preferences of consumers for selected product characteristics associated with furniture choices--specifically style, color, color scheme, texture, and materials--and the procedures for administration of those instruments. Results are based on a random sampling of public housing residents. (Author/MW)