Confluence theory was developed to explain the negative effects of birth order on intelligence. Using aggregate, between-family, within-family, and paired-sibling data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, tests the mathematical form of confluence theory and finds no support for it. Suggests that statistical methods used to fit the model to the…

A detailed investigation is provided of Stout's statistical procedure (the computer program DIMTEST) for testing the hypothesis that an essentially unidimensional latent trait model fits observed binary item response data from a psychological test. Three refinements achieve greater power. The revised approach is validated using real data sets.…

Equating tests from different calibrations under item response theory (IRT) requires calculation of the slope and intercept of the appropriate linear transformation. Two methods have been proposed recently for equating graded response items under IRT, a test characteristic curve method and a minimum chi-square method. These two methods are…

This paper illustrates the transformation of a raw data matrix into a matrix of associations, and then into a factor matrix. Factor analysis attempts to distill the most important relationships among a set of variables, thereby permitting some theoretical simplification. In this heuristic data, a correlation matrix was derived to display…

LISREL-type structural equation modeling is a powerful statistical technique that seems appropriate for social science variables which are complex and difficult to measure. The literature on the specification, estimation, and testing of such models is voluminous. The greatest proportion of this literature, however, focuses on the technical aspects…

This document contains three papers from the Methodology Project of the Center for the Study of Evaluation. Methods for characterizing test accuracy are reported in the first two papers. "Bounds on the K Out of N Reliability of a Test, and an Exact Test for Hierarchically Related Items" describes and illustrates how an extension of a…

The results of six major projects are discussed including a comprehensive mathematical and statistical analysis of the problems caused by errors of measurement in linear models for assessing change. In a general matrix representation of the problem, several new analytic results are proved concerning the parameters which affect bias in…

This publication consists of three papers that deal with the statistical evaluation of the inschool and out-of-school population of UNESCO member nations from a purely demographic viewpoint. Particular attention is devoted to the statistical aspects of measuring school retardation, the age structure of the enrolled and not-enrolled population, and…

Multiple sources of complications in the analysis of multilevel educational data are described with emphasis on the determination of a method of analysis that will provide accurate estimates of teacher/class effects even when there are systematic differences in within-class regressions of outcome on input associated with teacher/class…

This document presents a modified cohort survival model which can be of use in making enrollment projections. The model begins by analytically profiling an area's residents. Each person's demographic characteristics--sex, age, place of residence--are recorded in the computer memory. Four major input variables are then incorporated into the model:…

Statistical methods are described for diagnosing and treating three important problems in covariate tests of significance: curvilinearity, covariable effectiveness, and treatment-covariable interaction. Six major assumptions, prerequisites for covariate procedure, are discussed in detail: (1) normal distribution, (2) homogeneity of variances, (3)…

High School and Beyond data set and path analytic techniques were used to compare Black and Hispanic high school seniors' achievement in public and in Catholic schools. When better ability measures were added to the causal models the apparent effect of Catholic schooling on minority achievement was greatly reduced. (Author/BS)

Many educational questions of research interest focus on individual differences in attitudes and behaviors related to academic achievement, changes in such attitudes and behaviors over time, and the types of academic environments that facilitate or prevent development of achievement attitudes and behaviors at school. This paper, the first in a…

Examines the methodology used by the authors of the article immediately preceding this one. Questions both the use of expenditure per student as a measure of educational quality and the cohort effect's influence on the differences in the wage earnings of Blacks and Whites. Available from American Economic Review, 1313 21st Avenue So., Suite 809,…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)