Describes and evaluates a circuitless flow model for forecasting future student attributes and enrollment projections, compared with a simple Markov chain model. Data from a study of secondary students are used to illustrate the analytical methodologies and to contrast results of the Markov chain and circuitless flow models. (JG)

Internal validity is described as a matter of how well a particular instance of data collection or generation can be described and explained. It is a property of the procedures used in the collection or generation of data. The notion of internal validity is examined in order to establish a method of quantitatively estimating it. A coefficient of…

One aspect of multiple regression--the shrinkage of the multiple correlation coefficient on cross-validation is reviewed. The paper consists of four sections. In section one, the distinction between a fixed and a random multiple regression model is made explicit. In section two, the cross-validation paradigm and an explanation for the occurrence…

This paper presents an index of goodness-of-fit for comparing m models over n trials. The index allows for differentiated weighting of the trials as to their importance in the comparison of the models. Several possible weighting schemes are suggested and the conditions on the weights which assure asymptotic normality of the index distribution are…

Bayesian statistical methodology and its possible uses in the behavioral sciences are discussed in relation to the solution of problems in both the use and teaching of fundamental statistical methods, including confidence intervals, significance tests, and sampling. The Bayesian model explains these statistical methods and offers a consistent…

The relevance of research to educational ideas is discussed in this paper. General ways of organizing education in matters of theory, policy, or practice, and methodology are the "fantasies" analyzed; the need for research to produce the evidence that will convert these fantasies to fact is emphasized. A research example from elementary…

The validity of an evaluation model for mastery testing applications was investigated. Three variables were tested in an experiment using 96 third grade subjects--amount of training, number of alternates in an item, and number of items. The concept hierarchy involved an orderly progression from a concept involving one relevant of three varying…

An equation is derived which predicts the relationship between the subjective information content of written textual material and the relative number of errors committed by a learner when asked to predict, letter by letter, the content of given textual material. (Author)

Tau, Lambda, and Kappa are measures developed for the analysis of discrete multivariate data of the type represented by stimulus response confusion matrices. The accuracy with which they may be estimated from small sample confusion matrices is investigated by Monte Carlo methods. (Author/LMO)

Fifth article in a sequence that originated with a controversial article by Arthur R. Jensen (1969) criticized by Richard J. Light and Paul V. Smith (1969) and countercriticized by the author (1971). (SE)

This paper discusses problems associated with the application of experimental methods to program evaluation, proposes an alternative approach (program-attribute scaling), and reports the procedure and results of a trial application of the alternative approach. (Author)

A statistical methodology applied to three years of teaching load data from 21 major public universities yields an objective, broadly applicable set of student credit hours (SCH) weight factors. A table of optimum weighting factors for upper division and graduate SCH is presented. (Author/MLW)

Discusses the methodological requirements for valid inferences from school-effectiveness research studies, which include long-term longitudinal data and proper statistical modelling of hierarchical data structures. Explains problems with using simple performance indicators to measure school effectiveness. Outlines appropriate multilevel…