The National Center for Education Statistics supported this conference as a first step in a dialogue among forecasters to benefit all in the field. Fifty forecasters representing 20 different federal agencies attended the day-long session. Objectives of the conference include: (1) to bring forecasters together for a forum to share information on…

Two analytic models, each with different implications for data analysis, have been used in behavioral science research for assessing attitudinal congruency. The term relative congruence applies to the family of agreement indices which, although functions of the absolute index, are formulated relative to chance expectations. The term absolute…

A methodological framework is presented for representing tradeoffs among alternative combinations of training and aiding for personnel in complex situations. In general, more highly trained people need less aid, and those with less training need more aid. Balancing training and aiding to accomplish the objectives of the system in a cost effective…

The focus of the session summarized in this paper was on how postsecondary educational institutions can better anticipate the future of higher education by using the "alternative futures approach to planning" model. The alternative futures model processes the best available information obtainable so that plausible alternative futures in…

Adherence to the arbitrary 0.05 level of significance as a benchmark for decisions about publishing research largely accounts for the popularity of one-tailed hypothesis tests. Effect size estimates, accompanied by confidence intervals or exact two-tailed probabilities, are generally more compatible with the growing meta-analytic view of social…

No technique of forecasting exists with which a "single" future can be predicted accurately. We can, however, project a set of significantly different but quite plausible lines of future development, a set of alternative future histories, which we hope will bracket the one future that comes to be. Since social indicators are specifically designed…

Expectancy theory and decision theory research predicting occupational preference and choice were reviewed to assess the usefulness of such approaches. Each investigation produced substantial support for the use of such models suggesting that both theories can provide practical insights for occupational guidance and counseling. While theoretical,…

This paper describes a spreadsheet-based faculty flow model developed and implemented at the University of Calgary (Canada) to analyze faculty retirement, turnover, and salary issues. The study examined whether, given expected faculty turnover, the current salary increment system was sustainable in a stable or declining funding environment, and…