Bayesian statistical methodology and its possible uses in the behavioral sciences are discussed in relation to the solution of problems in both the use and teaching of fundamental statistical methods, including confidence intervals, significance tests, and sampling. The Bayesian model explains these statistical methods and offers a consistent…

This paper explains some of the problems with, and their importance to the application of, the Cross-Impact Matrix (CIM). The CIM is a research method designed to serve as a heuristic device to enhance a person's ability to think about the future and as an analytical device to be used by planners to help in actually forecasting future occurrences.…

The use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in assisting researchers to analyze decisions is discussed. The AHP is compared with other decision-analysis techniques, including multiattribute utility measurement, conjoint analysis, and general linear models. Insights that AHP can provide are illustrated with data gathered in an auditing context.…

To locate matches across pairs of lists without unique identifiers it is sometimes necessary to compare strings of letters. String comparators are used in production computer matching software during the Post Enumeration Survey for the 1990 U.S. census. A string comparator metric is described that partially accounts for: (1) typographical…

The Government Accounting Office (GAO) reviewed 71 actuarial, behavioral, and economic models that are used for retirement forecasting, focusing on models of federal retirement program costs, civilian retirement decisions, and retirement income. GAO wished to determine to what extent the models have been documented, to what extent the models are…

Decisions to terminate training for subjects involved with discrete trial experiments in discrimination learning should utilize a probability criterion rather than a deterministic criterion. Furthermore, these decisions should be based upon the number of correct and error responses made by the subject, with the decision made to terminate training…

The estimation and evaluation of the effects of alternative educational or social policies is a major purpose of decision oriented, comparative evaluation studies. This paper reviews the rationale underlying the definition and interpretation of various measures of effect magnitude and examines their relevance to evalution research. (Author)

Changes in information retention resulting from changes in reliability and number of intervals in scale construction were studied to provide quantitative information to help in decisions about choosing intervals. Information retention reached a maximum when the number of intervals was about 8 or more and reliability was near 1.0. (SLD)

The application of time series analysis is described, focusing on the use of regression analysis for analyzing time series in a way that may make it more readily available to an evaluation practice audience. Practical guidelines are suggested for decision makers in government, health, and social welfare agencies. (SLD)

This document was prepared in connection with a three-year longitudinal study of career expectations of high school students conducted to explain scientifically the process by which youth form career expectations, e.g., educational, occupational, and income expectations. Divided into six chapters, this document contains a theoretical rationale for…

Proceedings of the 1980 annual forum of the Association for Institutional Research (AIR) on the topics of meeting the challenges of the eighties by redirecting resources for renewal are presented. Contents include the following addresses: "Planning: An Adaptive Process," by Barbara S. Uehling; "Catastrophe Models in…

Eleven lectures on simulation and gaming delivered at a symposium in Western Canada are presented. Three articles concern ways of gaining knowledge about the effectiveness of the simulation method in teaching. Several articles describe the use of simulation in teaching specific areas: home economics education, agricultural engineering, and…

These proceedings include four articles intended to familiarize librarians with many facets of operations research and how they might be applied to their institutions. The first paper provides a brief definition of operations research. The second presentation, by Ralph Shoffner, relates, in the form of concrete examples, the questions one asks…

The effect of indebtedness (undergraduate loan burden) after college graduation on the decision to pursue a graduate degree was studied for 899 individuals from the High School and Beyond study. Level of undergraduate debt was not a significant choice determinant. Some limitations of the methodology are discussed. (SLD)

Expectancy theory and decision theory research predicting occupational preference and choice were reviewed to assess the usefulness of such approaches. Each investigation produced substantial support for the use of such models suggesting that both theories can provide practical insights for occupational guidance and counseling. While theoretical,…