Binary logistic regression is one of the most widely used statistical tools. The method uses odds, log odds, and odds ratios, which are difficult to understand and interpret. Understanding of logistic regression tends to fall down in one of three ways: (1) Many students and researchers come to believe that an odds ratio translates directly into…

We consider the problem of bias arising from conditioning on a post-outcome collider. We illustrate this with reference to Elwert and Winship (2014) but we go beyond their study to investigate the extent to which inverse probability weighting might offer solutions. We use linear models to derive expressions for the bias arising in different kinds…

Subjects with initially extreme observations upon remeasurement are found closer to the population mean. This tendency of observations toward the mean is called regression to the mean (RTM) and can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. Studies, where subjects are selected on a baseline criterion, should be guarded against…

The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students' desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP…

A linear model is often used to find the effect of a binary treatment D on a noncontinuous outcome Y with covariates X. Particularly, a binary Y gives the popular "linear probability model (LPM)," but the linear model is untenable if X contains a continuous regressor. This raises the question: what kind of treatment effect does the…

Experiments in psychology or education often use logistic regression models (LRMs) when analyzing binary outcomes. However, a challenge with LRMs is that results are generally difficult to understand. We present alternatives to LRMs in the analysis of experiments and discuss the linear probability model, the log-binomial model, and the modified…

Many generalization studies in education are typically based on a sample of 30-70 schools while the inference population is at least twenty times larger. This small sample to population size ratio limits the precision of design-based estimators of the population average treatment effect. Prior work has shown the potential of small area estimation…

The latent growth model (LGM) is a popular tool in the social and behavioral sciences to study development processes of continuous and discrete outcome variables. A special case are frequency measurements of behaviors or events, such as doctor visits per month or crimes committed per year. Probability distributions for such outcomes include the…

Causal inference involves determining whether a treatment (e.g., an education program) causes a change in outcomes (e.g., academic achievement). It is well-known that causal effects are more challenging to estimate than associations. Over the past 50 years, the potential outcomes framework has become one of the most widely used approaches for…

We provide tools for identification and exploration of data with very large variability having power law tails. Such data describe extreme features of processes such as fire losses, flood, drought, financial gain/loss, hurricanes, population of cities, among others. Prediction and quantification of extreme events are at the forefront of the…

Population adjustment methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) are increasingly used to compare marginal treatment effects when there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers and limited patient-level data. MAIC is based on propensity score weighting, which is sensitive to poor covariate overlap and cannot extrapolate…

This study represented dimensions from the diffusion of innovations theory and the community of inquiry model to explore the adoption of web-conferencing. It used logistic regression to model the likelihood of adopting web-conferencing in online teaching with data collected from 66 college online instructors. In the logistic regression analyses,…

Logistic regression (LoR) is a foundational supervised machine learning algorithm and yet, unlike linear regression, appears rarely taught early on, where analogy and proximity to linear regression would be an advantage. A random sample of 50 syllabi from undergraduate business statistics courses shows only two percent of the courses included LoR.…