Everyone knows that teachers do not have unlimited time, a log of experience, or a deep understanding of all the mathematics they teach. To solve this problem, teachers often use textbooks, and the accompanying teacher's resource books, as sources of activities and advice about how to help students learn mathematics. The activity that prompted…

Presents a method of solving decision problems in conditions of incomplete knowledge of the probabilities of the states of nature. It uses all available information in order to delimit the region of ignorance as closely as possible. (Author)

Nine problem situations involving the use of random numbers are given. Topics include cooking, hunting, bacteria contamination, waiting lines, ransom walks, and branching. In addition to the problem situation, questions are suggested which can be used to extend the investigations. (LS)

TWO BASIC NEEDS OF THE DECISIONMAKER ARE IDENTIFIED--THE NEED TO FUNCTION UNDER CONDITIONS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CERTAINTY AND THE NEED TO BE VIGILANT AFTER THE INITIAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE. PSYCHOLOGICAL CERTAINTY IS DETERMINED BY THE PERSON'S ASSESSMENT OF HIS ENVIRONMENT OR LIFE SPACE AND THE RESOURCES HE HAS AT HIS COMMAND, BOTH OF WHICH ARE…

Solutions to a problem on seating arrangements and one on a box-office situation are discussed; a statistical approach is used. Four computer programs are included. (MNS)

Use of the computer to simulate or imitate probability problems that are difficult to analyze in any other way is discussed. How the Monte Carlo method works is clarified, with sample problems and programs. (MNS)

A mathematical model of a soccer-league competition results is set up and investigated using simple randomization techniques. The hypothesis that winning the league championship was purely luck was statistically tested. (JP)

The University of Minnesota has pioneered in establishing future-oriented courses and curricula and now ranks as one of the world's leading centers of future studies. Article describes the Minnesota experience and offers suggestions to other institutions that want to futurize themselves. (Author)

A simple probability game was analyzed hierarchically in terms of the strategies that would lead most often to an efficient sequence of plays. A series of experiments showed there was no relationship between the use of first-order strategy and knowledge of the probability content of the game. (Author/GDC)

The famous birthday problem is discussed and activities which can be used with it as an introduction to probability are examined. (SD)

Presents an activity introducing probability and patterns to multigrade students. Uses the storybook "The Thirteen Days of Halloween" to demonstrate numbers, patterns, and probability. (ASK)

Investigates and explores questions and activities related to using a calendar. Students explore number sense and operations, logical reasoning, data analysis, probability, and algebra. (Author/NB)

Some uncomplicated illustrations of how probability yields results that seem in conflict with traditional intuition are given. (MNS)

Investigates the problem of finding the expected number of questions necessary to identify 1 out of a set of 30 attribute blocks. Solutions include the use of a tree diagram or a computer simulation. Generalizes the problem for increased numbers of attributes. (MDH)

Eight experiments examined whether certain human problem-solving mechanisms should be expected to represent probability information in terms of frequency. Findings are consistent with literature indicating that frequentist representations eliminate various cognitive biases, including overconfidence, the conjunction fallacy, and base rate neglect.…