When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice, however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with…

In late November 2020, there was a flurry of media coverage of two companies' claims of 95% efficacy rates of newly developed COVID-19 vaccines, but information about the confidence interval was not reported. This paper presents a way of teaching the concept of hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals using numbers announced…

Count responses with grouping and right censoring have long been used in surveys to study a variety of behaviors, status, and attitudes. Yet grouping or right-censoring decisions of count responses still rely on arbitrary choices made by researchers. We develop a new method for evaluating grouping and right-censoring decisions of count responses…

The thriving developer community has a significant impact on the widespread use of R software. To better understand this community, we conducted a study analyzing all R packages available on CRAN. We identified the most popular topics of R packages by text mining the package descriptions. Additionally, using network centrality measures, we…

This article is motivated by the importance of developing statistically literate students. The authors present a selection of problems that could be used to motivate student interest in probability as well as providing additional depth to the curriculum when used alongside traditional resources. The solutions presented utilise natural frequencies…

We developed and tested strategies for using spatial representations to help students understand core probability concepts, including the multiplication rule for computing a joint probability from a marginal and conditional probability, interpreting an odds value as the ratio of two probabilities, and Bayesian inference. The general goal of these…

This report aims to showcase the value of implementing a Bayesian framework to analyse and report results from international large-scale surveys and provide guidance to users who want to analyse the data using this approach. The motivation for this report stems from the recognition that Bayesian statistical inference is fast becoming a popular…

This thesis studies four independent resource allocation problems with different assumptions on information available to the central planner, and strategic considerations of the agents present in the system. We start off with an online, non-strategic agents setting in Chapter 1, where we study the dynamic pricing and learning problem under the…

People's expectations help them make judgments about the world. In the area of spatial memory, the interaction of existing knowledge with incoming information is best illustrated in the category effect, a bias in positioning a target toward the prototypical location of its region (Huttenlocher et al., 1991). According to Bayesian principles, these…

Large-scale education data are collected via complex sampling designs that incorporate clustering and unequal probability of selection. Multilevel models are often utilized to account for clustering effects. The probability weighted approach (PWA) has been frequently used to deal with the unequal probability of selection. In this study, we examine…

Multiple choice results are inherently probabilistic outcomes, as correct responses reflect a combination of knowledge and guessing, while incorrect responses additionally reflect blunder, a confidently committed mistake. To objectively resolve knowledge from responses in an MC test structure, we evaluated probabilistic models that explicitly…

Engineering design plays an important role in education. However, due to its open nature and complexity, providing timely support to students has been challenging using the traditional assessment methods. This study takes an initial step to employ learning analytics to build performance prediction models to help struggling students. It allows…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

It is now widely accepted that the standard inferential toolkit used by the scientific research community--null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST)--is not fit for purpose. Yet despite the threat posed to the scientific enterprise, there is no agreement concerning alternative approaches for evidence assessment. This lack of consensus reflects…

This mixed research aims to design and implement the Web Application on Bayes' Theorem (WABT) in the Statistical Instrumentation for Business subject. WABT presents the procedure to calculate the probability of Bayes' Theorem through the simulation of data about the supply of products. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), machine learning and data…