Presents an activity for introducing probability by investigating the Chinese policy of having one child per family and a one-son policy of some rural Chinese. Discusses features of the problem, including counterintuitiveness, multiple options for analysis, and thought experiments. (MKR)

This document contains three papers from the Methodology Project of the Center for the Study of Evaluation. Methods for characterizing test accuracy are reported in the first two papers. "Bounds on the K Out of N Reliability of a Test, and an Exact Test for Hierarchically Related Items" describes and illustrates how an extension of a…

Presented is a description of the experimental first-year algebra materials "Algebra Through Applications"; a description of the procedure used in evaluating these materials; and recommendations for changes in the materials, implementation, evaluation, and funding. The evaluation indicates that these materials can be effectively used in a variety…

The question of whether test factor structure is indicative of the test item hierarchy was examined. Data from 1,000 subjects on two sets of five bivalued Law School Admission Test items, which were analyzed with latent trait methods of Bock and Lieberman and of Christoffersson in Psychometrika, were analyzed with an ordering-theoretic method to…

The Answer-Until-Correct (AUC) procedure has been proposed in order to increase the reliability of multiple-choice items. A model for examinees' behavior when they must respond to each item until they answer it correctly is presented. An expression for the reliability of AUC items, as a function of the characteristics of the item and the scoring…

The psychometric research done by G. Rasch between 1951 and 1959, which is explained and illustrated in this book, takes psychometrics from being purely descriptive to being a science of objective measurement. Individual centered statistics require models in which each individual is characterized separately and from which, given adequate data,…

Analyzes a sample of over 4,700 orders for library materials at the University of California, Berkeley, in terms of the probability that the material will arrive and the factors that determine arrival. Models to evaluate the book ordering process are presented, and variables that may affect arrival time are discussed. (six references) (Author/LRW)

Presents two methods of calculating the expected value for a participant on the television game show "The Wheel of Fortune." The first approach involves the use of basic expected-value principles. The second approach uses those principles in addition to infinite geometric series. (MDH)

The intuitive simplicity of probability can be deceiving. Described is a dialogue that presents arguments for conflicting solutions to a seemingly simple problem determining the probability of having two boys in a two-child family knowing that one child is a boy. Solutions contain multiple arguments and representations. (MDH)

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

Included are probability models for various strategies that contestants on the television game show, "Let's-Make-a-Deal," might use when given the option to stick with their original choice of three unopened doors or switch to the unopened door after one of the other two doors has been opened. (JJK)

Probability theory can be developed from a theoretical or experimental probability approach. The problem, "The Gambler's Ruin," is used to study whether students are naturally sensitive to learning probability from an experimental probability approach through simulations. Results indicated that use of simulations can contribute to…

Presents a mathematics activity to model the exponential growth of the common cold, AIDS, or any other communicable disease. Underscores the effect that a friend's or partner's previous behavior may have on a current relationship and on society at large. (ASK)

Cox (1972) proposed a discrete-time survival model that is somewhat analogous to the proportional hazards model for continuous time. Efron (1988) showed that this model can be estimated using ordinary logistic regression software, and Singer and Willett (1993) provided a detailed illustration of a particularly flexible form of the model that…

Hierarchical Bayes procedures were compared for estimating item and ability parameters in item response theory. Simulated data sets from the two-parameter logistic model were analyzed using three different hierarchical Bayes procedures: (1) the joint Bayesian with known hyperparameters (JB1); (2) the joint Bayesian with information hyperpriors…