Five models which perform search tasks of the Data Base Access and Search Environment (DBASE) are presented and used for comparison with subject search performance--unconstrained (rule-based, decision theoretic) and constrained (optimal rule-based, rule-based, probabilistic rule-based). Previous experiments and the modeling approach are briefly…

Some activities designed around the Monte Carlo method of solving probability problems are described. The instructional applications of this method involve physical models or simple BASIC computer programs. (MP)

Macready and Dayton introduced two probabilistic models for mastery assessment based on an idealistic all-or-none conception of mastery. Alternatively, an application of latent trait theory to mastery testing is proposed (a three parameter logistic model) as a more plausible model for test theory. (Author/CTM)

The Core-Plus Mathematics Project (CPMP) is a four-year program emphasizing mathematical modeling, featuring full use of graphing calculators, building on the theme of mathematics as sense-making, and involving investigations of real-life contexts that lead to reinventing important mathematics. (MKR)

Uses probability models in problem-solving activities based on an episode of the television show "Gunsmoke." (MKR)

Inference is considered for the marginal distribution of "X" when ("X", "Y") has a truncated bivariate normal distribution. The "Y" variable is truncated, but only the "X" values are observed. A sample of 87 Otis test scores is shown to be well described by this model. (SLD)

This paper addresses the problem of probabilistic reasoning as it applies to Truth Maintenance Systems (TMS). A computer-based Belief Maintenance System (BMS) has been constructed which manages a current set of probabilistic beliefs in much the same way that a TMS manages a set of true/false beliefs. It may be thought of as a generalization of a…

Two fundamental problems in mental test theory are to estimate true score and to estimate the amount of error when testing an examinee. In this report, three probability models which characterize a single test item in terms of a population of examinees are described. How these models may be modified to characterize a single examinee in terms of an…

THE ABC (APPROACH BY CONCEPT) SYSTEM FOR STORAGE AND RETRIEVAL OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO AN EXTENSIVE PERFORMANCE TEST. IN LI 000 318 THE TEST PROGRAM AND SETUP WAS DESCRIBED AS WELL AS THE METHODOLOGY, AND IN THE SECOND REPORT, LI 000 317, A PRELIMINARY STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE TEST RESULTS WAS GIVEN. THIS…

THE PROBLEM OF PREDICTING THE PATTERNS OF USE OF LIBRARY MATERIALS IN ORDER TO DECIDE WHICH MONOGRAPHS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM A MAIN COLLECTION AND PLACED IN STORAGE IS STUDIED IN THIS REPORT. SPECIFICALLY, THE STUDY EXAMINES PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND DEVELOPS NEW MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR STUDYING THE…

Procedures are presented for equating simultaneously several tests which have been calibrated by the Rasch Model. Three multiple test equating designs are described. A Full Matrix Design equates each test to all others. A Chain Design links tests sequentially. A Vector Design equates one test to each of the other tests. For each design, the Rasch…

A numerical procedure is outlined for obtaining an interval estimate of a parameter in an empirical Bayes estimation problem. The case where each observed value x has a binomial distribution, conditional on a parameter zeta, is the only case considered. For each x, the parameter estimated is the expected value of zeta given x. The main purpose is…

A model of competition probabilities using past performances of competitors against common opponents is constructed. Application to predicting victories in athletic competitions is also reviewed. (MP)

The PARallELogram Analysis (PARELLA) model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. A method is presented for testing for differential item functioning (DIF) for the PARELLA model using the approach of D. Thissen and others (1988). (SLD)

An extension is proposed for the network algorithm introduced by C.R. Mehta and N.R. Patel to construct exact tail probabilities for testing the general hypothesis that item responses are distributed according to the Rasch model. A simulation study indicates the efficiency of the algorithm. (SLD)