The author gives a three dimensional analog of Pascal's Triangle as an exercise in heuristic thinking and an introduction to the multinomial theorem. The analog involves finding the number of shortest routes to various rooms in a cubical apartment house. (MN)

A mathematical model of a soccer-league competition results is set up and investigated using simple randomization techniques. The hypothesis that winning the league championship was purely luck was statistically tested. (JP)

A recent recommendation by Holt (EJ 200 576) that coefficients resulting from estimating log-linear and similar models should not be interpreted is argued to be based on lack of clarity about the substantive and theoretical importance of the choice between dummy and effect coding for categorical variables. (Author/GDC)

Decision theory is a useful method for assessing the effectiveness of the components of a course placement system. The effectiveness of placement tests or other variables in identifying underprepared students is described by the conditional probability of success in a standard course. Estimating the conditional probability of success is discussed.…

Suggests ways for using data from championship tennis as a means for exploring probabilistic models, especially binomial probability. Examples include the probability of winning a service point and the probability of winning a service game using data from tables and graphs. (AIM)

Discusses the interdependencies between parameter estimation and properties of probabilistic models, such as dependency assumptions, binary vs. nonbinary features, and estimation sample selection. An optimum estimation for binary features applicable to information retrieval is defined, a method for computing this estimation using empirical data is…

Develops mathematical models to characterize the probability of continued use of an integrated office automation system and tests these models on longitudinal data collected from 210 individuals using the IBM Professional Office System (PROFS) at the University of California at Berkeley. Analyses using survival functions and proportional hazard…

A Bayesian solution is suggested to the problem of jointly estimating "k is greater than 1" binomial parameters in conjunction with the problem of testing, in a Bayesian sense, the hypothesis "H" of parametric homogeneity. Applications of the estimates are illustrated with several types of data, including ophthalmological…

Observes the application of probability theory to a game between two players. Shows how basic techniques such as tree diagrams can be used to demonstrate optimum strategies, how the art of bluffing can be quantified, and how this might be applied to a game of poker. (Author/ASK)

The dataset presented here illustrates to students the utility of logistic regression. Its analysis results in a fit that explains much of how senators vote on a particular bill, and allows for quantification of the effects of ideology and money on the vote. A number of interesting quantitative interpretations follow from a good fit. A successful…

The normal curve has long been important in statistics. Most interval variables yield normal or quasi-normal distributions when data are collected from large samples, and the normal "Z" distribution is also used as a test statistic (e.g., to test differences between two means when sample size is large, since "t" approaches…

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

It has often been argued that all techniques of standard setting are arbitrary and likely to yield different results for different techniques or persons. This paper deals with a related but hitherto ignored aspect of standard setting, namely, the possibility that Angoff or Nedelsky judges misspecify the probabilities of the borderline student's…

Using conventional mental test theory, item parameters of an aptitude or achievement test vary with each group of examinees, and as such are somewhat limited in their use and interpretation. Within the last 25 years, measurement models have emerged in which item parameters are considered to be invariant. Generically referred to as latent trait…

The author describes a new graphing algorithm for computing probabilities, and presents problems for these algorithms for use in the classroom. (SD)