Induced probabilities have been largely ignored by educational researchers. Simply stated, if a new or random variable is defined in terms of a first random variable, then induced probability is the probability or density of the new random variable that can be found by summation or integration over the appropriate domains of the original random…

Reviews the principles of Monte Carlo calculation and random number generation in an attempt to introduce the direct and the rejection method of sampling techniques as well as the variance-reduction procedures. Indicates that the increasing availability of computers makes it possible for a wider audience to learn about these powerful methods. (CC)

Some activities designed around the Monte Carlo method of solving probability problems are described. The instructional applications of this method involve physical models or simple BASIC computer programs. (MP)

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by an item response theory (IRT) model. The RR…

The power of the classical Linear Discriminant Function (LDF) is compared, using Monte Carlo techniques with five other procedures for classifying observations from certain non-normal distributions. The alternative procedures considered are the Quadratic Discriminant Function, a Nearest Neighbor Procedure with Probability Blocks, and three density…

Presents sports-oriented examples (cricket and football) in which Monte Carlo methods are used on microcomputers to teach probability concepts. Both examples include computer programs (with listings) which utilize the microcomputer's random number generator. Instructional strategies, with further challenges to help students understand the role of…

Discusses the application of probabilistic ideas, especially Monte Carlo simulation, to calculus. Describes some applications using the Monte Carlo method: Riemann sums; maximizing and minimizing a function; mean value theorems; and testing conjectures. (YP)

In a primer intended for the administrative professions, for the behavioral sciences, and for education, simulation and its various aspects are defined, illustrated, and explained. Man-model simulation, man-computer simulation, all-computer simulation, and analysis are discussed as techniques for studying object systems (parts of the "real…

Two easily computed test statistics are proposed for testing the equality of two correlated proportions when some observations are missing on both responses. The performance of these tests in terms of size and power is compared with other tests by means of Monte Carlo simulations. (Author/BS)

Introduces two data distortion methods (Frequency-Imposed Distortion, Frequency-Imposed Probability Distortion) and uses a Monte Carlo study to compare their performance with that of other distortion methods (Point Distortion, Probability Distortion). Indications that data generated by these two methods produce accurate statistics and protect…

Unfolding response models, a class of item response theory (IRT) models that assume a unimodal item response function (IRF), are often used for the measurement of attitudes. Verhelst and Verstralen (1993)and Andrich and Luo (1993) independently developed unfolding response models by relating the observed responses to a more common monotone IRT…

This paper describes a computer simulation of Buffon's needle problem. The problem considers the probability that a needle will cross a line when the needle is thrown in a random way onto the parallel lines a certain distance apart. The paper provides the algorithm and computer program. (YP)

Measures of the robustness of disease class-specific diagnostic concepts could play a central role in training programs designed to assure the development of diagnostic competence. In the pilot study, the authors used disease/sign-symptom conditional probability estimates, Monte Carlo procedures, and artificial intelligence (AI) tools to create…

The development of a probabilistic model for validating Gange's learning hierarchies is described. Learning hierarchies are defined as paired networks of intellectual tasks arranged so that a substantial amount of positive transfer occurs from tasks in a lower position to connected ones in a higher position. This probabilistic validation technique…