Creates graphs to see how the relative frequency of an event tends to approach the probability of that event as the number of trials increases. Uses a simulation of a poker machine to provide context for this subject. (ASK)

The "Weather Prediction" task is a widely used task for investigating probabilistic category learning, in which various cues are probabilistically (but not perfectly) predictive of class membership. This means that a given combination of cues sometimes belongs to one class and sometimes to another. Prior studies showed that subjects can improve…

Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task that may be dependent. This paper explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations from the same task: (1) No context--Ignore dependence among observables; (2) Compensatory…

The Monte Carlo Method is a method of approximately solving mathematical and physical problems by the simulation of random quantities. The principal goal of this booklet is to suggest to specialists in all areas that they will encounter problems which can be solved by the Monte Carlo Method. Part I of the booklet discusses the simulation of random…

Encourages the use of the microcomputer to teach probability theory and concepts. Presents an instructional sequence and provides 10 activities, three of which have short programs listed. (JM)

Develops models to systematically forecast the tendency of an educational administrator in charge of personnel selection processes to shift from one decision strategy to another under generally stable environmental conditions. Urges further research on these processes by educational planners. (JF)

The uses of random number generators are illustrated in three ways: (1) the solution of a probability problem using a coin; (2) the solution of a system of simultaneous linear equations using a die; and (3) the approximation of pi using darts. (MP)

Mixed Rasch models add latent classes to conventional Rasch models, assuming that the Rasch model applies within each class and that relative difficulties of items are different in two or more latent classes. This article considers a family of stochastically ordered mixed Rasch models, with ordinal latent classes characterized by increasing total…

A Monte Carlo approach is proposed, using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) programming language, for estimating reliability coefficients in generalizability theory studies. Test scores are generated by a probabilistic model that considers the probability for a person with a given ability score to answer an item with a given difficulty…

This Monte Carlo study examines whether, given various numbers of variables, treatments, and sample sizes, in a one-way multivariate analysis of variance, Type I error rates of the test approximations provided by the BMDP program, the Statistical Analysis System (SAS), and the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for Roy's largest…

A major problem in most predictions of school enrollment is the forecaster's failure to express adequately his certainty or uncertainty in his estimates. Describes a method whereby a forecaster can prepare probability distributions of enrollment predictions. The Monte Carlo computer simulation calculates enrollments by the multivariable method,…

Monte Carlo methods are used to simulate activities in baseball such as a team's "hot streak" and a hitter's "batting slump." Student participation in such simulations is viewed as a useful method of giving pupils a better understanding of the probability concepts involved. (MP)

The construction cost estimate, often expressed as an absolute cost, leads to misunderstanding between client, designers, and builders. If estimates are to be used as adequate cost indicators, their probabilistic nature must be recognized and they must be expressed not as absolute numbers but in terms of a number with some indication of the…

The problem of comparing proportions when some data are missing is investigated, and determination is made of what statistical techniques are appropriate under each of several probability models describing the observations likely to be missing. Monte Carlo methods were used to investigate the properties of standard estimators under each of the…

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact…