In Bayesian statistics, the most widely used criteria of Bayesian model assessment and comparison are Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC). A multilevel mediation model is used as an illustrative example to compare different types of DIC and WAIC. More specifically, the study compares the…

In recent years, converging evidence has suggested that prediction plays a role in language comprehension, as it appears to do in information processing in a range of cognitive domains. Much of the evidence for this comes from the N400, a neural index of the processing of meaningful stimuli which has been argued to index the extent to which a word…

The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students' desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP…

Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the scalar identification of the coefficients and are expressed in…

Sequence learning is fundamental to a wide range of cognitive functions. Explaining how sequences--and the relations between the elements they comprise--are learned is a fundamental challenge to cognitive science. However, although hundreds of articles addressing this question are published each year, the actual learning mechanisms involved in the…

Drug repurposing refers to the process of discovering new therapeutic uses for existing medicines. Compared to traditional drug discovery, drug repurposing is attractive for its speed, cost, and reduced risk of failure. However, existing approaches for drug repurposing involve complex, computationally-intensive analytical methods that are not…

Longitudinal data structures are frequently encountered in a variety of disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. Growth curve modeling offers a highly extensible framework that allows for the exploration of rich hypotheses. However, owing to the presence of interrelated sources of potential data-model misfit at multiple levels, the…

This article reports on a study in which third-grade students (8-9 years) were given a degree of agency in conducting chance experiments and representing the outcomes. Students chose their own samples of 12 coloured counters, ensuring all colours were represented. They predicted the outcomes of item selection, tested their predictions, explained…

The aim of this study is to explore the judgments and reasoning in probabilistic tasks that require comparing two probabilities either with or without introducing an additional degree of uncertainty. The reasoning associated with the task having an additional condition of uncertainty has not been discussed in previous studies. The 66 undergraduate…

Statistical learning (SL) plays a key role in literacy acquisition. Studies have increasingly revealed the influence of distributional statistical properties of words on visual word processing, including the effects of word frequency (lexical level) and mappings between orthography, phonology, and semantics (sub-lexical level). However, there has…

Of critical importance to education policy is monitoring trends in education outcomes over time. In the United States, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has provided long-term trend data since 1970; at the state/jurisdiction level, NAEP has provided long-term trend data since 1996. In addition to the national NAEP, all 50…

This report aims to showcase the value of implementing a Bayesian framework to analyse and report results from international large-scale surveys and provide guidance to users who want to analyse the data using this approach. The motivation for this report stems from the recognition that Bayesian statistical inference is fast becoming a popular…

We consider two-level models where a continuous response R and continuous covariates C are assumed missing at random. Inferences based on maximum likelihood or Bayes are routinely made by estimating their joint normal distribution from observed data R[subscript obs] and C[subscript obs]. However, if the model for R given C includes random…

Engineering design plays an important role in education. However, due to its open nature and complexity, providing timely support to students has been challenging using the traditional assessment methods. This study takes an initial step to employ learning analytics to build performance prediction models to help struggling students. It allows…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…