This article summarizes a conceptual framework and simple mathematical methods of estimating the probability that one event was a necessary cause of another, as interpreted by lawmakers. We show that the fusion of observational and experimental data can yield informative bounds that, under certain circumstances, meet legal criteria of causation.…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

Computerized adaptive testing is subject to security problems, as the item bank content remains operative over long periods and administration time is flexible for examinees. Spreading the content of a part of the item bank could lead to an overestimation of the examinees' trait level. The most common way of reducing this risk is to impose a…

This article proposes a general latent variable approach to discrete-time survival analysis of nonrepeatable events such as onset of drug use. It is shown how the survival analysis can be formulated as a generalized latent class analysis of event history indicators. The latent class analysis can use covariates and can be combined with the joint…

A mathematical setting based on a statistical sampling probability mechanism is described. In this setting, a mathematical meaning is given for the information function; and it becomes possible to study the relative merits of various ability-estimating procedures. The maximum likelihood estimation procedure under the one-, two-, three-parameter…

A mastery test is frequently described as follows: an examinee responds to n dichotomously scored test items. Depending upon the examinee's observed (number correct) score, a mastery decision is made and the examinee is advanced to the next level of instruction. Otherwise, a nonmastery decision is made and the examinee is given remedial work. This…

An asymptotic theory is developed for a new time series model introduced in TM 502 289. An algorithm for computing estimates of the parameters of this time series model is given, and it is shown that these estimators are asymptotically efficient in that they have the same asymptotic distribution as the maximum likelihood estimators. (Author/RC)

Estimation is by means of iterative convergence to maximum likelihood estimates, and two approaches to assessing fit of the model to sample data are discussed. Relation of this general probabilistic model to other, more restricted models is explored and three cases of the general model are applied to exemplary data. (Author/RC)

Previous work on the mathematical and implementation details of the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation procedure is extended to encompass the marginalized Bayesian procedure for estimating item parameters of R. J. Mislevy (1986) and to communicate this procedure to users of the BILOG computer program. (SLD)

A model is presented for item responses when different subjects use different strategies, but only responses--not choice of strategy--can be observed. Substantive theory is used to differentiate the likelihoods of response vectors under a fixed set of strategies, and response probabilities are modeled via item parameters for each strategy. (TJH)

Inference is considered for the marginal distribution of "X" when ("X", "Y") has a truncated bivariate normal distribution. The "Y" variable is truncated, but only the "X" values are observed. A sample of 87 Otis test scores is shown to be well described by this model. (SLD)

An extension is proposed for the network algorithm introduced by C.R. Mehta and N.R. Patel to construct exact tail probabilities for testing the general hypothesis that item responses are distributed according to the Rasch model. A simulation study indicates the efficiency of the algorithm. (SLD)

Although differential item functioning (DIF) theory traditionally focuses on the behavior of individual items in two (or a few) specific groups, in educational measurement contexts, it is often plausible to regard the set of items as a random sample from a broader category. This article presents logistic mixed models that can be used to model…

Two easily computed test statistics are proposed for testing the equality of two correlated proportions when some observations are missing on both responses. The performance of these tests in terms of size and power is compared with other tests by means of Monte Carlo simulations. (Author/BS)

A probabilistic item response theory (IRT) model is developed for pair-comparison design in which the unfolding principle governing the choice process uses a discriminant process analogous to Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment. A simulation study demonstrates the feasibility of estimation, and two examples illustrate the implications for…