The topic of Bayesian updating is explored using standard and non-standard dice as an intuitive and motivating model. Details of calculating posterior probabilities for a discrete distribution are provided, offering a different view to P-values. This article also includes the stars and bars counting technique, a powerful method of counting that is…

Evidence evaluation is a crucial process in many human activities, spanning from medical diagnosis to impression formation. The present experiments investigated which, if any, normative model best conforms to people's intuition about the value of the obtained evidence. Psychologists, epistemologists, and philosophers of science have proposed…

What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…