This study aims to investigate about the existence of a graphical facilitation effect on probabilistic reasoning. Measures of undergraduates' performances on problems presented in both verbal-numerical and graphical-pictorial formats have been related to visuo-spatial and numerical prerequisites, to statistical anxiety, to attitudes towards…

Instructional strategies for teaching concepts have long been identified. Less commonly studied is a learner's level of confidence and certitude in their knowledge based upon exposure to these instructional treatments. This experimental research study used an instrument referred to as the Spatial Probability Measure (SPM) to solicit levels of…

A dicussion is provided of some statistical measures and graphical information that, when used as feedback to the student, facilitates his ability to assess his own uncertainty. These measures and graphs, which result from the application of least squares analysis and information theory to decision-theoretic testing, provide the student with the…

Testing procedures which involve testees assigning probabilities of correctness to all multiple choice alternatives is examined. Two basic assumptions in these procedures are reviewed. Empirical examinee response data are examined and it is suggested that these assumptions should not be taken lightly in empirical studies of personal probability…

Describes confidence testing methods (confidence weighting, probabilistic marking, multiple alternative selection) as alternative to computer-based, multiple choice tests and explains potential benefits (increased reliability, improved examinee evaluation of alternatives, extended diagnostic information and remediation prescriptions, happier…

In 3 studies, participants viewed sequences of multiattribute objects (e.g., colored shapes) appearing with varying frequencies and judged the likelihood of the attributes of those objects. Judged probabilities reflected a compromise between (a) the frequency with which each attribute appeared and (b) the ignorance prior probability cued by the…

One formulation of confidence scoring requires the examinee to indicate as a number his personal probability of the correctness of each alternative in a multiple-choice test. For this formulation a linear transformation of the logarithm of the correct response is maximized if the examinee accurately reports his personal probability. To equate…

Decision-theoretic testing is used to explore whether students can improve their realism, i.e. congruence between reported and true probabilities. Randomized sets of math problems were presented at computer terminals to 49 seventh graders from two classes (high/low achievers) over a period of three weeks. The subject assigned values to each of…

Effects of immediate and delayed feedback on learning were studied in 2 experiments involving 120 undergraduate students. Subjects answered 90 general information multiple-choice items on 2 different occasions 1 week apart. Subjects rated their confidence in their responses. Results provide support for the Kulhavy and Stock model and the…

The present study was an attempt to alleviate some of the difficulties inherent in multiple-choice items by having examinees respond to multiple-choice items in a probabilistic manner. Using this format, examinees are able to respond to each alternative and to provide indications of any partial knowledge they may possess concerning the item. The…

Describes a computer-based method of confidence-testing, available in batch processing and interactive form, which improves a student's ability to assess probabilities during clinical diagnosis. The methods and results of three experiments are presented. (EAO)

One formulation of confidence scoring requires the examinee to indicate as a number his personal probability of the correctness of each alternative in a multiple-choice test. For this formulation, a linear transformation of the logarithm of the correct response is maximized if the examinee reports accurately his personal probability. To equate…

Instructions are provided on how to create and take computer aided admissible probability measurement (CAAPM) tests using programs available on PLATO IV. Admissible probability measurement is a testing procedure that permits a user to express a degree of uncertainty as to the correctness of alternative answers. Section II describes PLATO IV, an…

Studies in psychology and clinical decision making have shown that research subjects and physicians are often overconfident in the accuracy of their judgments. In these studies, groups of 20 first-year and 27 third-year osteopathic medical students at the Ohio University College of Osteopathic Medicine (Athens) were slightly underconfident in…

In this study, the authors investigated the role of overconfidence on students' performance on multiple-choice examinations. The authors examined the difference between students' self-assessed probability of selecting each correct answer and the proportion of correct answers that they actually selected. Results show that high-performing students…