Binary logistic regression is one of the most widely used statistical tools. The method uses odds, log odds, and odds ratios, which are difficult to understand and interpret. Understanding of logistic regression tends to fall down in one of three ways: (1) Many students and researchers come to believe that an odds ratio translates directly into…

In Bayesian statistics, the most widely used criteria of Bayesian model assessment and comparison are Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC). A multilevel mediation model is used as an illustrative example to compare different types of DIC and WAIC. More specifically, the study compares the…

The topic of Bayesian updating is explored using standard and non-standard dice as an intuitive and motivating model. Details of calculating posterior probabilities for a discrete distribution are provided, offering a different view to P-values. This article also includes the stars and bars counting technique, a powerful method of counting that is…

Doubly robust (DR) estimators that combine regression adjustments and inverse probability weighting (IPW) are widely used in causal inference with observational data because they are claimed to be consistent when either the outcome or the treatment selection model is correctly specified (Scharfstein et al., 1999). This property of "double…

The standard regression technique for modeling binary response variables in education research is logistic regression. The odds ratios from these models are used to quantify and communicate variable effects. These effects are sometimes pooled together as in a meta-analysis. We argue that this process is problematic as odds ratios calculated from…

In late November 2020, there was a flurry of media coverage of two companies' claims of 95% efficacy rates of newly developed COVID-19 vaccines, but information about the confidence interval was not reported. This paper presents a way of teaching the concept of hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals using numbers announced…

In the United States high school students may take college level courses that count for credit in both high school and college, often called dual enrollment. Students may take courses at their high school from certified instructors or at a local college. We investigate possible differences between these two groups of students using student level…

Many generalization studies in education are typically based on a sample of 30-70 schools while the inference population is at least twenty times larger. This small sample to population size ratio limits the precision of design-based estimators of the population average treatment effect. Prior work has shown the potential of small area estimation…

Mixed Membership Models (MMMs) are a popular family of latent structure models for complex multivariate data. Instead of forcing each subject to belong to a single cluster, MMMs incorporate a vector of subject-specific weights characterizing partial membership across clusters. With this flexibility come challenges in uniquely identifying,…

Students studying statistics often misunderstand what statistics represent. Some of the most well-known misunderstandings of statistics revolve around null hypothesis significance testing. One pervasive misunderstanding is that the calculated p-value represents the probability that the null hypothesis is true, and that if p < 0.05, there is…

The latent growth model (LGM) is a popular tool in the social and behavioral sciences to study development processes of continuous and discrete outcome variables. A special case are frequency measurements of behaviors or events, such as doctor visits per month or crimes committed per year. Probability distributions for such outcomes include the…

Causal inference involves determining whether a treatment (e.g., an education program) causes a change in outcomes (e.g., academic achievement). It is well-known that causal effects are more challenging to estimate than associations. Over the past 50 years, the potential outcomes framework has become one of the most widely used approaches for…

Standard meta-analysis methods are vulnerable to bias from incomplete reporting of results (both publication and outcome reporting bias) and poor study quality. Several alternative methods have been proposed as being less vulnerable to such biases. To evaluate these claims independently we simulated study results under a broad range of conditions…

Pearson's product-moment correlation can be explained by means of the probability of concordant pairs of observations on two continuous variables (ie, the order of the observations from two randomly selected individuals is the same between the two variables). The probability of concordant pairs features relatively easy computation and offers an…

This tutorial uses publicly available data from drug makers and the Food and Drug Administration to guide learners to estimate the confidence intervals of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy rates with a Bayesian framework. Under the classical approach, there is no probability associated with a parameter, and the meaning of confidence intervals can be…