Matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) enables indirect comparisons of interventions across separate studies when individual patient-level data (IPD) are available for only one study. Due to its similarity with propensity score weighting, it has been speculated that MAIC can be combined with outcome regression models in the spirit of…

Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the scalar identification of the coefficients and are expressed in…

Though individual categorization or decision processes have been studied separately in many previous investigations, few studies have investigated how they interact by using a two-stage task of first categorizing and then deciding. To address this issue, we investigated a categorization-decision task in two experiments. In both, participants were…

Reluctance of respondents to participate in surveys has long drawn the attention of survey researchers. Yet, little is known about what drives a respondent's decision to answer the survey invitation early or late during the field period. Moreover, we still lack evidence on response timing in longitudinal surveys. That is, the questions on whether…

In Bayesian statistics, the most widely used criteria of Bayesian model assessment and comparison are Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC). A multilevel mediation model is used as an illustrative example to compare different types of DIC and WAIC. More specifically, the study compares the…

An international comparative study of mathematics textbooks is essential in identifying trends in international mathematics education, developing textbooks and improving the quality of teaching and learning in mathematics. This study analyses and compares the contents of the probability and statistics curricula in the high school textbooks of…

We present an exploratory study of Costa Rican and Spanish students' (11-16-year-olds) competence to compare probabilities in urns and compare ratios in mixture problems. A sample of 704 students in Grades 6 through to Grade 10, 292 from Costa Rica and 412 from Spain, were given one of two forms of a questionnaire with three probability comparison…

The literature showing that subscores fail to add value is vast; yet despite their typical redundancy and the frequent presence of substantial statistical errors, many stakeholders remain convinced of their necessity. This article describes a method for identifying and reporting unexpectedly high or low subscores by comparing each examinee's…

Probability is a difficult concept, which is not always taught accurately. This study aims to clarify how experimental and theoretical probabilities are taught in Japanese 7th and 8th grades through a textbook analysis. We analyzed seven, government approved Japanese 7th and 8th grade textbooks each. Focusing on the definition and explanation of…

This study evaluates various scoring methods including number-correct scoring, IRT theta scoring, and hybrid scoring in terms of scale-score stability over time. A simulation study was conducted to examine the relative performance of five scoring methods in terms of preserving the first two moments of scale scores for a population in a chain of…

The Karlson-Holm-Breen (KHB) method has rapidly become popular as a way of separating the impact of confounding from rescaling when comparing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates in nonlinear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this note, we show that the same estimates can be obtained in a somewhat different way to…

Judgments of learning (JOL) are often used to assess memory monitoring at encoding. Participants study a cue-target word pair (e.g., mouse-cheese) and are asked to rate the probability of correctly recalling the target in the presence of the cue at test (e.g., mouse -?). Prior research has shown that JOL accuracy is sensitive to perceptual cues.…

Population adjustment methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) are increasingly used to compare marginal treatment effects when there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers and limited patient-level data. MAIC is based on propensity score weighting, which is sensitive to poor covariate overlap and cannot extrapolate…

The internal validity of observational study is often subject to debate. In this study, we define the counterfactuals as the unobserved sample and intend to quantify its relationship with the null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST). We propose the probability of a robust inference for internal validity, that is, the PIV, as a robustness index…

Comparing probabilities is a useful skill in life. Binary choice tasks are popular means in research on probabilistic reasoning. Falk, Yudilevich-Assouline, and Elstein ("Educational Studies in Mathematics," 81(2), 207-233 2012) noted that many of these tasks contain design flaws. We designed and evaluated an extended and improved binary…