Two novel proofs show that the sum of a specific pair of normal random variables is not normal are established in this note. This is one of the most often misunderstood facts by first-year students in probability theory and statistics. The first proof is concise using the moment generating function. The second proof checks whether the moments of…

The import or force of the result of a statistical test has long been portrayed as consistent with deductive reasoning. The simplest form of deductive argument has a first premise with conditional form, such as p[right arrow]q, which means that "if p is true, then q must be true." Given the first premise, one can either affirm or deny…

Terence Mills introduces us to Keynsian probability and discusses its implications for teaching probability. The author considers it unlikely that Keynes's theory would replace how we teach probability, but argues that it may make us think more deeply about the use of terms such as chance and probability when used in our lessons.

The Peto odds ratio is a well-known effect measure in meta-analysis of binary outcomes. For pairwise comparisons, the Peto odds ratio estimator can be severely biased in the situation of unbalanced sample sizes in the two treatment groups or large treatment effects. In this publication, we evaluate Peto odds ratio estimators in the setting of…

The current literature on test equating generally defines it as the process necessary to obtain score comparability between different test forms. The definition is in contrast with Lord's foundational paper which viewed equating as the process required to obtain comparability of measurement scale between forms. The distinction between the notions…

The recent commentary by Beaujean and Farmer (2020) on the original paper by Dixon et al. (2019) serves a cautionary tale of selective p-values, the law of small N sizes, and the type-II error. We believe these authors have crafted a somewhat questionable argument in which only 57% of the original Dixon et al. data were re-analyzed, based on a…

How do we deal with unlikely witness testimonies? Whether in legal or everyday reasoning, corroborative evidence is generally considered a strong marker of support for the reported hypothesis. However, questions remain regarding how the prior probability, or base rate, of that hypothesis interacts with corroboration. Using a Bayesian network…

Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the scalar identification of the coefficients and are expressed in…

The primary objective of this investigation is the formulation of random intercept latent profile transition analysis (RI-LPTA). Our simulation investigation suggests that the election between LPTA and RI-LPTA for examination has negligible impact on the estimation of transition probability parameters when the population parameters are generated…

Over the past ten years, propensity score methods have made an important contribution to improving generalizations from studies that do not select samples randomly from a population of inference. However, these methods require assumptions and recent work has considered the role of bounding approaches that provide a range of treatment impact…

For estimation of heterogeneity variance T[superscript 2] in meta-analysis of log-odds-ratio, we derive new mean- and median-unbiased point estimators and new interval estimators based on a generalized Q statistic, Q[subscript F], in which the weights depend on only the studies' effective sample sizes. We compare them with familiar estimators…

Newly precise evidence of the trajectory of top incomes in the United States and around the world relies on shares and ratios, prompting new inquiry into their properties as inequality measures. Current evidence suggests a mathematical link between top shares and the Gini coefficient and empirical links extending as well to the Atkinson measure.…

To explore the differential impact of job automation for different groups of primary and secondary school students, an analysis of variance was conducted using survey data on the occupational aspirations of British school students (aged 7-18) and probability statistics derived from a model of job automation. Results indicated that students aged…

This study explores the usefulness of covariates on equating test scores from nonequivalent test groups. The covariates are captured by an estimated propensity score, which is used as a proxy for latent ability to balance the test groups. The objective is to assess the sensitivity of the equated scores to various misspecifications in the…

An interval estimation procedure is discussed that can be used to evaluate the probability of a particular response for a binary or binary scored item at a pre-specified point along an underlying latent continuum. The item is assumed to: (a) be part of a unidimensional multi-component measuring instrument that may contain also polytomous items,…