Binary logistic regression is one of the most widely used statistical tools. The method uses odds, log odds, and odds ratios, which are difficult to understand and interpret. Understanding of logistic regression tends to fall down in one of three ways: (1) Many students and researchers come to believe that an odds ratio translates directly into…

We consider the problem of bias arising from conditioning on a post-outcome collider. We illustrate this with reference to Elwert and Winship (2014) but we go beyond their study to investigate the extent to which inverse probability weighting might offer solutions. We use linear models to derive expressions for the bias arising in different kinds…

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and provide examples and tentative explanations of a number of statistical…

Controlling Type 1 error and encouraging reproducible research are important in clinical and translational research. These concepts are frequently discussed in lectures with mathematical language, analytic examples, and probability distributions that demonstrate the issues. However, first-time learners in biostatistics courses focusing on…

We provide tools for identification and exploration of data with very large variability having power law tails. Such data describe extreme features of processes such as fire losses, flood, drought, financial gain/loss, hurricanes, population of cities, among others. Prediction and quantification of extreme events are at the forefront of the…

The topic of Bayesian updating is explored using standard and non-standard dice as an intuitive and motivating model. Details of calculating posterior probabilities for a discrete distribution are provided, offering a different view to P-values. This article also includes the stars and bars counting technique, a powerful method of counting that is…

This article is motivated by the importance of developing statistically literate students. The authors present a selection of problems that could be used to motivate student interest in probability as well as providing additional depth to the curriculum when used alongside traditional resources. The solutions presented utilise natural frequencies…

Thinking probabilistically is an essential part of thinking statistically, and the probability learning objectives that this article focuses on are those that are important in the underpinning of statistics and statistical models. Like mathematical statistics, probability can be considered purely from a mathematical viewpoint, but the focus here…

All students want to talk about ideas that interest them, but often, multilingual learners are not offered high-challenge, high-support opportunities to connect everyday experiences to mathematical ideas. We describe a single class period that connects students' everyday opinions with two-way tables and notions of independence.

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a probabilistic model of a learner's state of mastery for a knowledge component. The learner's state is a "hidden" binary variable updated based on the correctness of the learner's responses to questions corresponding to that knowledge component. The parameters used for this update are inferred/learned…

There are two schools of thought in statistical analysis, frequentist, and Bayesian. Though the two approaches produce similar estimations and predictions in large-sample studies, their interpretations are different. Bland Altman analysis is a statistical method that is widely used for comparing two methods of measurement. It was originally…

We present an instructional approach to teaching causal inference using Bayesian networks and "do"-Calculus, which requires less prerequisite knowledge of statistics than existing approaches and can be consistently implemented in beginner to advanced levels courses. Moreover, this approach aims to address the central question in causal…

Survival analysis is an important analytic method in the social and medical sciences. Also known under the name time-to-event analysis, this method provides parameter estimation and model fitting commonly conducted via maximum-likelihood. Bayesian survival analysis offers multiple advantages over the frequentist approach for measurement…

Randomized controlled trials are not always feasible in educational research, so researchers must use alternative methods to study treatment effects. Propensity score matching is one such method for observational studies that has shown considerable growth in popularity since it was first introduced in the early 1980s. This paper outlines the…

The uniformly most accurate (UMA) is an important optimal approach in interval estimation, but the current literature often introduces it in a confusing way, rendering the learning, teaching and researching of UMA problematic. Two major aspects cause this confusion. First, UMA is often interpreted to maximize the accuracy of coverage, but in fact,…