In times of dramatic social change, new career options emerge and old options may become obsolete. We investigated predictors of change in general career aspirations and of plans to attend a university of East German adolescents from 1989 (before German unification) to 1991 and 1995, respectively, after German unification. Higher pre-unification…

Using a prospective design spanning 17 years, the authors studied in a sample of 231 boys and girls the predictive links of verbal abuse by the teacher during childhood to high-school graduation and behavioral and emotional problems in young adulthood, as well as the putative mediating role of individuals' generalized and domain-specific…

Based on data obtained from a 1985-86 mail survey of 666 current and former residents of New York State identified from Department of Motor Vehicle lists of licensed drivers, the study examines collective and independent contributions of social and economic bonds, residential preferences, and residential satisfaction on migration expectations of…

A Bayesian prediction strategy is outlined in which antecedent measures are divided into two subgroups. One subgroup is used to discriminate among criterion groups, the second to provide normal linear predictions for each group. Individualized regression constants are subsequently obtained by computing probabilities of group membership from the…

The authors studied beginning undergraduate actuarial concentrators in a business college. They identified four variables (math Scholastic Aptitude Test [SAT] score, verbal SAT score, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam) that were available for entering college students that…

Students' first semester on campus may set the stage for their alcohol use/misuse throughout college. The authors surveyed 274 randomly sampled first-semester freshmen at a large southwestern university on their past 2 weeks' binge drinking, their high school binge drinking, and psychosocial factors possibly associated with drinking. They…

This study extends previous research on the social psychological implications of pubertal timing to education by applying a life course framework to data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and from the Adolescent Health and Academic Achievement Study. Early pubertal timing, which has previously been associated with major…

Place of death was determined for all 58,689 seniors (age greater than or equal to 66 years) in Ontario who died during fiscal year 2001/2002. The relationship of place of death to medical and socio-demographic characteristics was examined using a multinomial logit model. Half (49.2 %) of these individuals died in hospital, 30.5 per cent died in a…

By showing how the addition of three universities to the State University System of Florida affected enrollment projections for the six older universities, a tool was developed that may be of use for enrollment projections in other settings, when the system changes. County population and K-12 school enrollment project reasonably well the…

This report provides estimates of job and occupational mobility by demographic, educational and labour market variables using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) "Labour Mobility" survey for 2002. The report provides information on the effects of these variables on the probability of job separation. It also identifies the…

Examines the use of various statistical techniques for generating domain-oriented multiword vocabulary terms for natural language database systems. Conclusions show the vocabulary clustering effect should be considered when making significance calculations and that a simple ratio of subject matter relative frequency to total sample relative…

This paper presents the results of a discrete-time event-history analysis of the relationships between client and program characteristics and the length and outcome of participation in a drug court program. We identify factors associated with both successful completion and premature termination. Having an African-American case manager, being…

Elusive developmental processes are most often examined in the context of the philosophic problem of scientific determinism. The Markov process model, enhancing a probabilistic viewpoint for the explanation of developmental data, should be restricted. Attention should be focused on the immediate context and situational setting of a subject. The…

The purpose of this study was to determine what, or part of what, makes academic success probable or improbable for a student. The core research question was, Which practices, characteristics, and circumstances of students, families, schools, school districts, and communities tend to give Maine students a higher probability of meeting state…

This study applied probability models in a four-year case study at a selective liberal arts college. The study found that, while admissions decisions matched institutional goals for student characteristics, discrepancies between acceptance and enrollment decisions frustrated the institution's efforts to achieve diversity and highlighted the…