This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

Retention is a complex issue of great importance to community colleges. Several retention models have been developed to help explain this phenomenon. However, these models typically have used four-year college and university environments to build their foundations. Several researchers have attempted to identify predictor variables using…

This article investigates three types of stage-sequential growth mixture models in the structural equation modeling framework for the analysis of multiple-phase longitudinal data. These models can be important tools for situations in which a single-phase growth mixture model produces distorted results and can allow researchers to better understand…

In an uncertain economy, reliable information about tomorrow's labor market can be a valuable tool in career planning. Understanding the future workforce helps an individual prepare for his/her place in it. When choosing among careers--or assisting others who are making such choices--it helps to know a few basics: the types and number of jobs…

For more than two decades, the enrollment funnel has shaped how enrollment managers planned their enrollment strategies. It was a reliable, effective model for enrollment behavior, and campuses could shape their strategies around it. In recent years, however, demographic changes as well as technological advances have rendered the traditional…

According to generational theorists, the interests and experiences of incoming students have fluctuated over time, with Millennial students being more engaged and accomplished than their predecessors. This project explored data from 1974-2007 to determine the actual trends in engagement and accomplishments for three generations of students. Over…

The relevance of students' statements on career intentions to predictions of career choices is examined. Career intentions questionnaires were administered to the 1973 University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine graduating class at the end of their first undergraduate year and three years later at graduation. (Author/MLW)

The time pattern of university participation rates and the variations across provinces in the light of economic analysis are discussed. While cost factors, tuition fees and student aid have changed significantly, it is argued that their quantitative impact is unlikely to account for a major part of the enrollment increase. (Author/MLW)

In January 1996, the Chancellor's Office of the California Community Colleges prepared a 15-year forecast of enrollment and weekly student contact hours (WSCH) using an econometric model that analyzes real (i.e., price-adjusted) costs facing students, real operating budget expenditures of colleges, population and unemployment projections, and…

Science plays an extremely important role in predicting the future of social phenomena, including pedagogy and andragogy. Research in these areas must be based on an interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary, systemic, and structural approach that is based on the assumption that upbringing and education are specific phenomena in which human…

Validity data (prediction of first-year grade point average) for colleges participating in the Admissions Testing Program Validity Study Service (VSS) and based on students entering college in 1964 through 1974 are summarized for the following predictors: Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT)--verbal score, SAT--mathematical score, high school record,…