In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

The common approach to studies of predictive bias is analyzed within the context of a conceptual model in which predictors and criterion measures are viewed as fallible indicators of idealized qualifications. (Author/PN)

Two problems in the investigation of predictive bias in tests, the effect of unreliability of the predictors, and the effect of excluding a predictor from the regression equation on which there are preexisting group differences, are discussed. (Author)

With respect to the selection of black students for college admission, traditional criteria, such as SAT scores and high school grade point average, have been shown not to be valid predictors of future college performance. Therefore, their continued use raises the question of whether this is a measurement problem or an instance of racism. (EH)

Based on the argument that traditional college admissions standards comprise elements that are invalid predictors of significant contributions to society, the author discusses selected results of a study which measured college apllicants' non-academic activities and productive thinking capacity as possible predictors of success in college.…

The claim that tests of intelligence and abilities are the best predictors of academic success fails to examine closely the important moderator variable as test and criterion characteristics rather than as person characteristics. (EH)

Differential prediction of two-year grade point average is reported for gender groups within university programs of study. Johnson-Neyman analyses indicated regions on the predictor score scales where differential prediction has practical impact for a significant portion of students. Careful selection of a subset of variables can reduce…

The evidence used in condemning a test as racially biased is usually a validity coefficient for one racial group that is significantly different from that of another racial group. However, both variables in the calculation of a validity coefficient should be examined to determine where the bias lies. A study was conducted to investigate the…

The existence of differential prediction of two-year grade point average is reported for gender groups within programs of study at the University of Iowa. Academic records of all freshmen entering the University in 1978 in the fields of Business, Liberal Arts, Pre-Medicine, and those undecided as to major were analyzed with respect to American…

Three alternative strategies for college selection, their associated cost and benefits are described in this study. These include a strict meritocratic procedure, a minority quota procedure and a disadvantaged quota procedure. The strict meritocratic procedure was operationalized in terms of predicted probability of success; the minority quota…

Statistical, legal and moral problems involved in following the EEOC guidelines are described. The guidelines require separate data for minority and non-minority groups with differential cut off scores for aptitude tests which have a racial bias. Problems reviewed include: identification of racial bias in tests is difficult; giving one race an…