Random forests are a nonparametric machine learning method, which is currently gaining popularity in the behavioral sciences. Despite random forests' potential advantages over more conventional statistical methods, a remaining question is how reliably informative predictor variables can be identified by means of random forests. The present study…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

This report describes work using nationally representative 2005 data from the School Nutrition Dietary Assessment-III (SNDA-III) study to develop a simulation model to predict the potential implications of changes in policies or practices related to school meals and school food environments. The model focuses on three domains of outcomes: (1) the…

The purpose of this study was to develop a screening procedure for undergraduate pilot training (UPT). This procedure was based upon the use of ground-based instrument trainers in which UPT candidates, naive to flying, were evaluated in their performance of job sample tasks; i.e., basic instrument flying. Training and testing sessions were…

This paper discusses the principles underlying discriminant analysis and constructs a simulated data set to illustrate its methods. Discriminant analysis is a multivariate technique for identifying the best combination of variables to maximally discriminate between groups. Discriminant functions are established on existing groups and used to…

An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. How coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school is discussed. (Author/MLW)

As the first step in a program to develop quantitative techniques for prescribing the design and use of training systems, the present study attempted: to compile an initial set of quantitative indices, to determine whether these indices could be used to describe a sample of trainee tasks and differentiate among them, to develop a predictive…

This discussion of research methodologies and performance prediction in business simulations describes a study of undergraduates that considered time in the prediction of simulation performance, and explored how relationships between performance and its antecedents vary over the simulation's duration. Hypotheses tested are explained and results of…

The major purpose of this study is to further the development of procedures which minimize current limitations of creativity instruments, thus yielding a reliable and functional means for assessing creativity. Computerized content analysis and multiple regression are employed to simulate the creativity ratings of trained judges. The computerized…

Impacts of both the originally proposed and the recently adopted University of California freshman admissions formulas on the regularly admitted freshman at Berkeley in the fall of 1972 and 1973 were assessed. The sex, ethnic characteristics, and graduation rates are examined for students who would have been included and excluded by the formulas.…