This study highlights the role and importance of advanced, machine learning-driven predictive models in enhancing the accuracy and timeliness of identifying students at-risk of negative academic outcomes in data-driven Early Warning Systems (EWS). K-12 school districts have, at best, 13 years to prepare students for adulthood and success. They…

Many researchers have explored the relationships between the likelihood of graduating from college and demographic and pre-college factors such as gender, race/ethnicity, high school grade point average (GPA), and standardized test scores. However, additional factors such as a student's college major, home address, or use of learning support in…

Retention is a complex issue of great importance to community colleges. Several retention models have been developed to help explain this phenomenon. However, these models typically have used four-year college and university environments to build their foundations. Several researchers have attempted to identify predictor variables using…

There is currently a nursing shortage in the United States. By 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects, the number of job openings for Practical Nurses (PN) will be 168,500, an increase of 25% over 2012 (BLS, 2014). Nursing education does not currently meet present, much less future needs. Nursing programs have limited space; according…

This study explored the interaction between student characteristics and the online environment in predicting course performance and subsequent college persistence among students in a large urban U.S. university system. Multilevel modeling, propensity score matching, and the KHB decomposition method were used. The most consistent pattern observed…

As the U.S. population ages and policy changes emerge, such as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, the U.S. will experience a significant shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs). Many colleges and universities are attempting to increase the size of nursing cohorts to respond to this imminent shortage. Notwithstanding a 2.6%…

Every year a group of graduates from high schools enter the engineering programs across this country with remarkable academic record. However, as reported in numerous studies, the number of students switching out of engineering majors continues to be an important issue. Previous studies have suggested various factors as predictors for student…

The paper uses the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data system (IPEDS) data to simulate the 2020 American Graduation Initiative (AGI) goal introduced by President Obama in the summer of 2009. We estimate community college graduation rates and completion numbers under different scenarios that include the following sets of variables: (a) internal…

Discussions of the barriers to completion in community colleges have largely focused on student success in introductory college-level math and English courses, and rightfully so, since these courses are typically required for degrees. However, there is a much broader range of courses that also serve as "gatekeepers" in the sense that they are…

In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

For the past several years, community college presidents have retired at alarming rates. At the same time, institutional needs have shifted and new skill sets are often desired. These changes, coupled with a lack of leader succession plans, budget cuts, and an increased emphasis on accountability, created opportunities for candidates with…

Tinto, Astin and countless others have researched the retention and attrition of students from college for more than thirty years. However, the six year graduation rate for all first-time full-time freshmen for the 2002 cohort was 57%. This study sought to determine the retention variables that predicted continued enrollment of entering freshmen…

The second year of college can be as important as the first year but far fewer studies have been conducted on second-year students. About 12% of students leave California State University - Fresno during or after their second year. In this report, we examined second year students to find the differences between those who graduate and those who…

Enrollment in STEM majors has improved recently, but there continues to be concern over students' retention in those majors, especially women and minority students. The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated understanding of how multiple predictor variables affect student degree attainment, and to ascertain how those variables' impact…

Prediction models using graduation rate as the performance indicator were obtained for community colleges in California, Florida, and Michigan. The results of this study indicated that institutional graduation rate could be predicted effectively from an aggregate of student and institutional characteristics. A performance measure was computed, the…