The paper uses the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data system (IPEDS) data to simulate the 2020 American Graduation Initiative (AGI) goal introduced by President Obama in the summer of 2009. We estimate community college graduation rates and completion numbers under different scenarios that include the following sets of variables: (a) internal…

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and their potential effects on prediction results are illustrated. Two methods for objectively selecting the "best" weight…

An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. How coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school is discussed. (Author/MLW)

Two methods were used to project college and university enrollment in South Carolina: the age ratio method, which correlates college attendance with the population of traditional college age; and the cohort survival method, using historical data on the progression of students from high school to and through college. The projections indicate that…

In forecasting its fall credit headcounts, the Office of Institutional Research and Analysis at Prince George's Community College (PGCC) utilizes the Component Yield Method (CYM), an enrollment projection model developed by the college's planning analyst in the early 1980's. By disaggregating enrolled students into multiple groups, each with an…

The time pattern of university participation rates and the variations across provinces in the light of economic analysis are discussed. While cost factors, tuition fees and student aid have changed significantly, it is argued that their quantitative impact is unlikely to account for a major part of the enrollment increase. (Author/MLW)

Indices of motivation and demand developed to forecast postsecondary enrollment in Manitoba, Canada, are described. The indices were tested with surveys of more than 14,000 high school students with respect to actual outcomes and validated by surveying more than 5,000 students. The theoretical basis of the indices, their use in enrollment…