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Measuring the Predictability of Life Outcomes with a Scientific Mass Collaboration
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Matthew J. Salganik; Ian Lundberg; Alexander T. Kindel; Caitlin E. Ahearn; Khaled Al-Ghoneim; Abdullah Almaatouq; Drew M. Altschul; Jennie E. Brand; Nicole Bohme Carnegie; Ryan James Compton; Debanjan Datta; Thomas Davidson; Anna Filippova; Connor Gilroy; Brian J. Goode; Eaman Jahani; Ridhi Kashyap; Antje Kirchner; Stephen McKay; Allison C. Morgan; Alex Pentland; Kivan Polimis; Louis Raes; Daniel E. Rigobon; Claudia V. Roberts; Diana M. Stanescu; Yoshihiko Suhara; Adaner Usmani; Erik H. Wang; Muna Adem; Abdulla Alhajri; Bedoor AlShebli; Redwane Amin; Ryan B. Amos; Lisa P. Argyle; Livia Baer-Bositis; Moritz Büchi; Bo-Ryehn Chung; William Eggert; Gregory Faletto; Zhilin Fan; Jeremy Freese; Tejomay Gadgil; Josh Gagné; Yue Gao; Andrew Halpern-Manners; Sonia P. Hashim; Sonia Hausen; Guanhua He; Kimberly Higuera; Bernie Hogan; Ilana M. Horwitz; Lisa M. Hummel; Naman Jain; Kun Jin; David Jurgens; Patrick Kaminski; Areg Karapetyan; E. H. Kim; Ben Leizman; Naijia Liu; Malte Möser; Andrew E. Mack; Mayank Mahajan; Noah Mandell; Helge Marahrens; Diana Mercado-Garcia; Viola Mocz; Katariina Mueller-Gastell; Ahmed Musse; Qiankun Niu; William Nowak; Hamidreza Omidvar; Andrew Or; Karen Ouyang; Katy M. Pinto; Ethan Porter; Kristin E. Porter; Crystal Qian; Tamkinat Rauf; Anahit Sargsyan; Thomas Schaffner; Landon Schnabel; Bryan Schonfeld; Ben Sender; Jonathan D. Tang; Emma Tsurkov; Austin van Loon; Onur Varol; Xiafei Wang; Zhi Wang; Julia Wang; Flora Wang; Samantha Weissman; Kirstie Whitaker; Maria K. Wolters; Wei Lee Woon; James Wu; Catherine Wu; Kengran Yang; Jingwen Yin; Bingyu Zhao; Chenyun Zhu; Jeanne Brooks-Gunn; Barbara E. Engelhardt; Moritz Hardt; Dean Knox; Karen Levy; Arvind Narayanan; Brandon M. Stewart; Duncan J. Watts; Sara McLanahan – Grantee Submission, 2020
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning…
Descriptors: Life Satisfaction, Family Life, Quality of Life, Disadvantaged
From Adolescent "Serious Offender" to Adult Felon: A Predictive Study of Offense Progression.
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Benda, Brent B.; Corwyn, Robert Flynn; Toombs, Nancy J. – Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 2001
Studies 248 adolescents who had been in a Serious Offender Program to examine the relative predictiveness of: a common risk assessment tool; a battery of psychological tests; and a combination of demographic and theoretical factors. Regression procedures indicate that the following are significant predictors: prior commitment; male; gang members;…
Descriptors: Adolescents, At Risk Persons, Delinquency, Individual Development
Prediction of Violence Perpetration Among High-Risk Youth
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Sussman, Steve; Skara, Silvana; Weiner, Michelle D.; Dent, Clyde W. – American Journal of Health Behavior, 2004
Objectives: To prospectively examine demographic background, personality, perceived environment, and behavior as violence perpetration predictors in emerging adulthood among high-risk adolescents using problem-behavior theory as a conceptual perspective. Methods: Self-report questionnaires were administered 5 years apart to 676 participants.…
Descriptors: Drug Use, Personality Traits, Violence, Adolescents
Tracking Children from Poverty at Risk for Specific Language Impairment: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study.
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Fazio, Barbara B.; And Others – Journal of Speech and Hearing Research, 1996
This study of language performance tracked 34 poor children from kindergarten through second grade. The best kindergarten predictor for eventual diagnosis with a specific language impairment was a combination of the score on the Oral Vocabulary subtest of the Test of Oral Language Development and the score on a combination of experimental tasks.…
Descriptors: At Risk Persons, Disability Identification, Educational Diagnosis, Language Impairments
Identifying High School Students Likely To Fail a Minimum Competency Test in Mathematics Required for Graduation.
Hartman, Jayne – Florida Educational Research Council Research Bulletin, 1989
In the State of Florida, the percentage of tenth grade students passing the Statewide Student Assessment Test-Part II (SSAT-II) Mathematics has declined one or two percentage points each year since 1985. Early, accurate identification and placement of these students for remedial instruction should help reverse this Florida trend. Accurate…
Descriptors: At Risk Persons, High Risk Students, Mathematics Achievement, Mathematics Education
Factors Predicting Continued High-Risk Behavior among Gay Men in Small Cities: Psychological, Behavioral, and Demographic Characteristics Related to Unsafe Sex.
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Kelly, Jeffrey A.; And Others – Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1995
Surveyed 5,939 men entering gay bars in 16 American cities to determine predictors of risky sexual practices. Excluding individuals in long-term exclusive relationships, 27 percent of respondents reported engaging in high-risk sex in the past 2 months. Findings indicate an urgent need for HIV prevention efforts for gay men in smaller cities. (RJM)
Descriptors: Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, At Risk Persons, Behavior, Homosexuality
Predictors of Developmental Outcomes for Infants Who Are Medically Fragile.
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Smith, Timothy B.; Boyce, Glenna C. – 1993
This paper presents results of a preliminary study which evaluated medical birth data as potential predictors of developmental outcome, and developed and tested an instrument designed for this purpose. Forty low birthweight children, all of whom had experienced neonatal intraventricular hemorrhage, were evaluated at school age (66 months) on the…
Descriptors: At Risk Persons, Biological Influences, Child Development, Disabilities
HIV Risk in Intravenous Drug Users and Crack Cocaine Smokers: Predicting Stage of Change for Condom Use.
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Bowen, Anne M.; Trotter, Robert, II – Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1995
Expanded the applicability of stage models to the reduction of HIV-risk behaviors. Distributed not-in-treatment crack cocaine smokers and intravenous drug users across three levels of intention to change, which revealed that benefits of change and condom assertiveness varied across the stages of change. Discusses other findings. (RJM)
Descriptors: Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, At Risk Persons, Behavior, Change
Who Becomes an "At-Risk" Student? The Predictive Value of a Kindergarten Screening Battery.
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Roth, Maryann; And Others – Exceptional Children, 1993
Kindergarten children (n=161) screened with the "Early Prevention of School Failure" (EPSF) measure were examined several years later. Students who had been retained, referred to special education, or placed in special education demonstrated significantly lower EPSF scores. The fine motor and auditory modalities were the most powerful…
Descriptors: Academic Failure, At Risk Persons, Auditory Perception, Followup Studies