Random forests are a nonparametric machine learning method, which is currently gaining popularity in the behavioral sciences. Despite random forests' potential advantages over more conventional statistical methods, a remaining question is how reliably informative predictor variables can be identified by means of random forests. The present study…

We extend a unified and easy-to-use approach to measurement error and missing data. In our companion article, Blackwell, Honaker, and King give an intuitive overview of the new technique, along with practical suggestions and empirical applications. Here, we offer more precise technical details, more sophisticated measurement error model…

Business analytics courses, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, have substantial predictive modeling components. The predictive modeling in these courses requires students to estimate and test many linear regressions. As a result, false positive variable selection ("type I errors") is…

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

We study the properties of two specification tests that have been applied to a variety of estimators in the context of value-added measures (VAMs) of teacher and school quality: the Hausman test for choosing between random and fixed effects and a test for feedback (sometimes called a "falsification test"). We discuss theoretical…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

This dissertation answers three research questions: (1) What are the characteristics of a combinatoric measure, based on the Average Search Length (ASL), that performs the same as a probabilistic version of the ASL?; (2) Does the combinatoric ASL measure produce the same performance result as the one that is obtained by ranking a collection of…

The Cox proportional hazards model and the accelerated failure time model are frequently used in survival data analysis. They are powerful, yet have limitation due to their model assumptions. Quantile regression offers a semiparametric approach to model data with possible heterogeneity. It is particularly powerful for censored responses, where the…

Rapid growth in eBusiness has made industry and commerce increasingly dependent on the hardware and software infrastructure that enables high-volume transaction processing across the Internet. Large transaction volumes at major industrial-firm data centers rely on robust transaction protocols and adequately provisioned hardware capacity to ensure…

This study examined the utility of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2's (MMPI-2) malingering discriminant function index (M-DFI), recently developed by Bacchiochi and Bagby, in the detection of malingering in a forensic sample. Criminal defendants were divided into "malingering" and "not malingering" groups using…

This dissertation has two primary concerns: (i) evaluating the uncertainty and prediction capabilities of a nanodiamond drug delivery model using Bayesian calibration and bias correction, and (ii) determining conceptual difficulties of multi-scale analysis from an engineering education perspective. A Bayesian uncertainty quantification scheme…

A difficult result to interpret in Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) occurs when an ability estimate initially drops and then ascends continuously until the test ends, suggesting that the true ability may be higher than implied by the final estimate. This study explains why this asymmetry occurs and shows that early mistakes by high-ability…

In recent years, there has been some dispute over the appropriate way to model decision making in professional sports leagues. In particular, Szymanski and Kesenne (2004) argue that formulating the decision-making problem in a noncooperative game leads to radically different conclusions about the nature of competition in sports leagues. The author…

This report describes work using nationally representative 2005 data from the School Nutrition Dietary Assessment-III (SNDA-III) study to develop a simulation model to predict the potential implications of changes in policies or practices related to school meals and school food environments. The model focuses on three domains of outcomes: (1) the…

Developed a simulation model to predict the effects of policies for reducing adolescent smoking initiation. The model projected numbers of smokers, never smokers, and ex-smokers by age, sex, and race/ethnicity and effects of reductions in youth initiation. Results predicted that even if tobacco policies eliminated youth initiation, the number of…