The principal concepts and processes of long-range technological forecasting is reviewed to reveal some omissions of strategic planning and to assess the way it is applied to postsecondary education. It is argued that strategic planning in higher education generally lacks the methodological rigor of long-range technological forecasting. A major…

Increasing demands for accurate forecasts in such areas as student enrollment, energy expenditures, and facility capacity are placing new demands on the institutional researcher. A variety of forecasting models and methods are available, all to be used with caution in long-range forecasting. (Author/MSE)

This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

The National Center for Education Statistics supported this conference as a first step in a dialogue among forecasters to benefit all in the field. Fifty forecasters representing 20 different federal agencies attended the day-long session. Objectives of the conference include: (1) to bring forecasters together for a forum to share information on…

This thesis describes a Policy Delphi study which was conducted to initiate discussion on sensitive policy questions among members of the Board of Trustees of the Pacific Telecommunications Council (PTC), an international, non-profit organization created as a permanent forum to promote the development, understanding, and beneficial use of…

Gender differences were examined in narratives of the future constructed by 39 male and 43 female older adolescents (aged about 20 years) in college. The most striking gender differences were found in pace and timing of predicted events, rather than in events themselves. Females' narratives exhibit greater temporal constraint. (SLD)

A study was conducted to explore the possible negative consequences that can occur when an innovation is introduced into an organization, with a focus on how the dynamics of an organization can affect, and be affected by, change. After a review of the literature on organizational change and innovation was completed, structured interviews were held…

Comparative applications of simple and complex faculty flow models are examined to determine (1) their relative demands for data and calculations, (2) the divergence of their projections, especially when modelling a no-growth faculty, and (3) an estimate of the error incurred (i.e., the cost to analysis) when a simple model is used. The results…

The focus of the session summarized in this paper was on how postsecondary educational institutions can better anticipate the future of higher education by using the "alternative futures approach to planning" model. The alternative futures model processes the best available information obtainable so that plausible alternative futures in…

A projection is provided of the Rancho Santiago Community College District's estimated future marginal costs of classroom teachers who, pursuant to California Assembly Bill 123, may retire using their highest 12 consecutive months' salary rather than the average of the 3 highest consecutive years as their final compensation. The projection was…

The use of futures research to improve a college's ability to deal with changes brought about by social, economic, political, and technological developments is discussed, with attention to new planning strategies and forecasting methods. While traditional long-range planning tracks and forecasts the institution's internal development, strategic…

A survey of over 50 service organizations, private firms, and government agencies revealed that there is a growing interest in foresight and related activities. Their attempts to predict change, the mechanisms used, costs, information sources, dissemination of results, benefits gained, disadvantages, evaluation procedures, and utilization of such…

Comprehensive enrollment management (CEM) ensures that academic, student, and fiscal planning are done in concert in order to acknowledge the turbulence confronting an institution. A four-phase model of CEM has been developed that can be replicated at any college or university. In phase 1 of the model, the past 25 years of institutional enrollment…

Data on child poverty from the past 30 years are used to project future trends. A national-level analysis of child poverty over the past 3 decades for all children under 18 years old shows that the number of U.S. children in poverty increased by approximately 1 million from 1980 to 1988; and approximately 2.2 million more U.S. children fell into…

This paper examines the use of environmental scanning for institutions of higher education to achieve the following objectives: (1) provide early warning of changes that will have an impact on education; (2) define potential threats and opportunities to the institution or department; (3) promote a future orientation in faculty; and (4) alert…