With the adjustment of industrial structure of China in recent years, the market urgently needs different levels of professionals. Specialty education is an important part of higher education in China, has its unique advantages. Through the analysis of the history data of specialty education in our country, the result shows that the specialty…

This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

In this paper, we explore what happened to the young workers featured in the classic text "Young workers: From school to work." In this book, the authors made predictions about the labour market outcomes and careers for the young people in their study, classifying them into three groups: the "careerless", the "short-term careers" and the "extended…

The development of a typology of community college students is a topic of long-standing and growing interest among educational researchers, policy-makers, administrators, and other stakeholders, but prior work on this topic has been limited in a number of important ways. In this paper, I develop a behavioral typology based on students'…

For more than two decades, the enrollment funnel has shaped how enrollment managers planned their enrollment strategies. It was a reliable, effective model for enrollment behavior, and campuses could shape their strategies around it. In recent years, however, demographic changes as well as technological advances have rendered the traditional…

Research Services calculates enrollment projections on an annual basis. These projections are presented each year at the district's Pupil Population Estimating Conference. For this year's projections, two years of trend data (2006-07 and 2007-08) were used to project student enrollment for 2008-09. Projections are provided by individual grade…

A model for predicting student credit hours (SCH) over a 2-year period was developed at the University of South Florida. A major application of the model would be to estimate the expected loss of upper-level SCH that would occur as a result of reduced lower-level enrollment. Attention was focused on the long-range effect of lower-level enrollment…

College enrollment will be relatively stable over the next four years according to new projections by the U.S. Department of Education. (MLW)

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and their potential effects on prediction results are illustrated. Two methods for objectively selecting the "best" weight…

This paper discusses two approaches that are well adapted to school district enrollment forecasting and related planning studies. The author focuses in turn on two enrollment forecasting methods--the Analytical Simulation Approach, and the Modified Cohort Survival Approach. After briefly describing each forecasting method, he presents a short case…

Many changes in college enrollment patterns have occurred since 1982. Three variables that affect enrollment include: differential fertility among population groups, a state's ability to retain students to high school graduation, and the number of a state's high school graduates who leave the state for college. (MLW)

The continued expansion of mass higher education and the increased number of programs waiving traditional admissions criteria have resulted in a reevaluation of college admissions practices. Significant debate focuses on the implications of open admissions programs and the need for new forms of higher education to serve a more diverse population.…

The viability of Freeman's model, which uses three equations to analyze causative demand and supply determinants, is examined as a management tool for explaining and predicting enrollments and the job market using macro and micro cases. (MSE)

Looking back on enrollment trends in higher education in Britain since 1800, this study examines the trend toward expansion and the philosophy behind such expansion. A statistical model is developed for enrollment trends, and recent literature on enrollment is examined in light of the model presented. (MSE)

Since university enrollment forecasting is very important, many different methods and models have been proposed by researchers. Two new methods for enrollment forecasting are introduced: (1) the fuzzy time series model; and (2) the artificial neural networks model. Fuzzy time series has been proposed to deal with forecasting problems within a…