The paper uses the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data system (IPEDS) data to simulate the 2020 American Graduation Initiative (AGI) goal introduced by President Obama in the summer of 2009. We estimate community college graduation rates and completion numbers under different scenarios that include the following sets of variables: (a) internal…

Research Services calculates enrollment projections on an annual basis. These projections are presented each year at the district's Pupil Population Estimating Conference. For this year's projections, two years of trend data (2006-07 and 2007-08) were used to project student enrollment for 2008-09. Projections are provided by individual grade…

In this report four models are formulated which forecast the enrollment and financial needs of students in higher education. The four models are: the undergraduate enrollment model, postbaccalaureate enrollment model, undergraduate student aid model, and postbaccalaureate student aid model. In addition to computing total financial needs, these…

A model is presented that combines a polynomial lag econometric model with a goal programming model to satisfy the known conditions while making efficient use of limited data. The model is applied to data for a large public university. (Author/MLW)

College enrollment will be relatively stable over the next four years according to new projections by the U.S. Department of Education. (MLW)

The impact of several environmental and institutional factors on college and university enrollments between 1975-76 and 1980-81 is examined. Separate enrollment analyses of public and private two-year and four-year institutions, and of the major doctoral, comprehensive, and baccalaureate institutions of four-year schools were made. (Author/MLW)

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The basic assumptions and formulas for its use are outlined. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and the potential effect on prediction results is illustrated.…

Describes and evaluates a circuitless flow model for forecasting future student attributes and enrollment projections, compared with a simple Markov chain model. Data from a study of secondary students are used to illustrate the analytical methodologies and to contrast results of the Markov chain and circuitless flow models. (JG)

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and their potential effects on prediction results are illustrated. Two methods for objectively selecting the "best" weight…

A selected and annotated bibliography of ERIC documents describing community college enrollment projection methods, including a demographic planning model, a modified Delphi technique, a cohort survival model, the age participation technique, and the bond program projection technique. (Author/AC)

Two methods used to predict enrollment at Montgomery College in Maryland are compared and evaluated, and the administrative context in which they are used is considered. The two methods involve time series analysis (curve fitting) and indicator techniques (yield from components). (MSE)

A model and implementation process is presented for projecting student headcount and credit hour and contact hour enrollment for each academic area and all areas aggregated by semester and fiscal year for each campus of Montgomery College, Maryland. The projection model is suggested as a managerial tool to assist the college's management to…

To establish a procedure for use in examining characteristics of future participants in adult education, a study focused on one characteristic--the highest level of education completed among participants in adult education activities. The process followed was to obtain reports from the National Center for Education Statitstics (NCES) (an official…

Problems of estimating college enrollments are addressed, with attention to shortfalls caused by smaller cohorts of traditional students and attempts to enroll adult students. Emphasis is placed on student credit hours (SCH) generated and on participation rates of adults. Full-time equivalency is defined as 24 SCH per student. Adult enrollment is…

An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. How coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school is discussed. (Author/MLW)