Predictive studies have been widely undertaken in the field of education to provide strategic information about the extensive set of processes related to teaching and learning, as well as about what variables predict certain educational outcomes, such as academic achievement or dropout. As in any other area, there is a set of standard techniques…

The 3-year graduation rate is a rarely measured metric in higher education compared to its 4- or 6- year graduation rate counterparts. For the first time in college (FTIC) students to graduate in three years, they must come with certain skills, abilities, plans, supports, or motivations. This project considers two distinct but interrelated ways of…

Research Services calculates enrollment projections on an annual basis. These projections are presented each year at the district's Pupil Population Estimating Conference. For this year's projections, two years of trend data (2006-07 and 2007-08) were used to project student enrollment for 2008-09. Projections are provided by individual grade…

In this report four models are formulated which forecast the enrollment and financial needs of students in higher education. The four models are: the undergraduate enrollment model, postbaccalaureate enrollment model, undergraduate student aid model, and postbaccalaureate student aid model. In addition to computing total financial needs, these…

This paper discusses two approaches that are well adapted to school district enrollment forecasting and related planning studies. The author focuses in turn on two enrollment forecasting methods--the Analytical Simulation Approach, and the Modified Cohort Survival Approach. After briefly describing each forecasting method, he presents a short case…

A study that used the new U.S. Census data on participation rates to develop a model for national and state forecasting for enrollment of older students is discussed. Data useful in estimates of institutional market share were also developed. (Author/MLW)

Studies of enrollment demand assume that public institutions accept all eligible applicants. If enrollments are limited by institutional constraints on the supply of places, another approach to estimating student demand behavior is needed. A model that explains the determination of enrollments in these cases is presented. (Author/MLW)

Provides statistical assessment of the amount of money developing countries will need to meet an estimated demand for primary education. Evaluates the cost of providing universal primary education by the year 2000. Concludes that African nations must increase spending on education the most, followed by Asia, with the smallest increase required in…

The difference between accepted and enrolling students was modeled over a 30-week period using total number of students accepted, mean composite SAT scores, and mean high school quarter rank. The enrollment yield and academic ability difference functions were collectively modeled for the university and separately for each academic college.…

Cost-related tuition can increase efficiency in higher education and in the labor markets it serves, and provide fiscal gains for individual institutions, depending on enrollment demands. Cost-related tuition and its possible effects are explained and the University of Minnesota's experience in implementing this policy are described. (Author/MLW)

This paper explores the need for a better understanding of the influences of prices and student aid on student enrollment and college budgets. The theory of net price has not been found to adequately explain changes in enrollment. Based on a critical review of recent research on student price response, this paper develops an alternative approach…

A technique is described for private liberal arts colleges to assess the probable matriculation behavior of admitted applicants. By performing a multiple discriminate analysis of data obtained from applicants admitted during a previous admissions season, and applying the information to a decision-making strategy used in political elections the…

The conference program and the texts of 24 papers presented at the conference are provided in this document. Selected papers include: "The Use of the College Student Experience Questionnaire in Policy and Program Development" (Karen Bauer and Dale Trusheim); "Predicting Freshman Performance as Admissions Criteria" (David Zubrow); "Has the Middle…

Test batteries that predict first quarter freshman GPA's at an open-door predominantly black, urban, community college are reported in this study. Entering freshman performance on an academic aptitude test--College Qualification Tests (CQT), a reading skills test--Davis Reading Test (Davis), and a study habits and attitudes test--Survey of Study…

The collection of dropout statistics is discussed from the perspective of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). The NELS:88 follows a cohort of 1988 eighth graders over time and is designed to provide trend data about transitions experienced as students progress through the educational system. Dropout statistics are provided…