Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

Background and Aims: The fastest growing group of students with disabilities are those with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). States annually report on post-high school outcomes (PSO) of exited students. This study sought to fill two gaps in the literature related to PSO for exited high-school students with ASD and the use of state data and…

NWEA claimed their assessment results could accurately predict student performance in reading and mathematics on the ACT Aspire for students in Grades 7 through 10. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between students' scores on the NWEA MAP tests in reading and mathematics and the ACT Aspire for students in Grades 7…

Considerable attention has been given to methods for knowledge estimation, a category of methods for automatic assessment of a student's degree of skill mastery or knowledge at a specific time. Knowledge estimation is frequently used to make decisions about when a student has reached mastery and is ready to advance to new material, but there has…

Among community college leaders and others interested in reforms to improve student success, there is growing interest in adopting machine learning (ML) techniques to predict credential completion. However, ML algorithms are often complex and are not readily accessible to practitioners for whom a simpler set of near-term measures may serve as…

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

Competition judges are often selected for their expertise, under the belief that a high level of performance expertise should enable accurate judgments of the competitors. Contrary to this assumption, we find evidence that expertise can reduce judgment accuracy. Adaptation level theory proposes that discriminatory capacity decreases with greater…

The current study used the learning hierarchy/instructional hierarchy phases of acquisition and fluency to predict intervention effectiveness based on preintervention reading skills. Preintervention reading accuracy (percentage of words read correctly) and rate (number of words read correctly per minute) were assessed for 49 second- and…

This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

With increasing Internet connectivity and traffic volume, recent intrusion incidents have reemphasized the importance of network intrusion detection systems for combating increasingly sophisticated network attacks. Techniques such as pattern recognition and the data mining of network events are often used by intrusion detection systems to classify…

We examined the criterion validity and diagnostic efficiency of oral reading fluency (ORF), word reading accuracy, and reading comprehension (RC) for students in Grades 7 and 8 taking into account form effects of ORF, time of assessment, and individual differences, including student designations of limited English proficiency and special education…

We report results of two studies on metacognitive accuracy with undergraduate education students. Participating students were asked to judge their personal performance in a multiple-choice exam as well as to state their confidence in their performance judgement (second-order judgement [SOJ]). In each study, we compared four conditions that…

We have conducted an investigation into how well students in introductory science classes (both physics and chemistry) are able to predict which questions they will or will not be able to answer correctly on an upcoming assessment. An examination of the data at the level of students' overall scores reveals results consistent with the…

Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…