In order to increase students' awareness for and comfort with mathematical modeling of biological processes, and increase their understanding of diffusion, the following lab was developed for use in 100-level, majors/non-majors biology and neuroscience courses. The activity begins with generation of a data set that uses coin-flips to replicate…

The relevance of this problem is related to the urgent need to explain peculiarities of anticipation and probabilistic forecasting in adolescence. It has revealed a contradiction: on the one hand, the problem of anticipation in ontogenesis is well developed, and, on the other hand, there remain understudied mechanisms of anticipation in…

How to identify at-risk students in open online courses has received increasing attention, since the dropout rate is unexpectedly high. Most prior studies have focused on using machine learning techniques to predict student dropout based on features extracted from students' learning activity logs. However, little work has viewed the dropout…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a commonly used approach for student modeling, and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is a versatile model that can be applied to a wide range of tasks, such as language translation. In this work, we directly compared three models: BKT, its variant Intervention-BKT (IBKT), and LSTM, on two types of student modeling…

This post is one in a series highlighting MDRC's methodological work. Contributors discuss the refinement and practical use of research methods being employed across the organization. Across policy domains, practitioners and researchers are benefiting from a trend of greater access to both more detailed and frequent data and the increased…

Over the past few decades, many studies conducted in the field of learning science have described that scaffolding plays an important role in human learning. To scaffold a learner efficiently, a teacher should predict how much support a learner must have to complete tasks and then decide the optimal degree of assistance to support the learner's…

We investigated how struggling adult readers make use of sentence context to facilitate word processing when comprehending spoken language, conditions under which print decoding is not a barrier to comprehension. Stimuli were strongly and weakly constraining sentences (as measured by cloze probability), which ended with the most expected word…

This study considers probability models as tools for both making informal statistical inferences and building stronger conceptual connections between data and chance topics in teaching statistics. In this paper, we aim to explore pre-service mathematics teachers' use of probability models for a chance game, where the sum of two dice matters in…

Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through "satisficing," fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of…

Objective. To examine temporal changes in the correlates of experimental and current e-cigarette use and associations with tobacco quit attempts. Method. Repeated cross-sectional analyses of data from the 2011 (n = 17,741), 2012 (n = 23,194), and 2013 (n = 16,858) National Youth Tobacco Surveys--a nationally representative sample of U.S. middle…

In 2015, 35 million learners participated online in 4,200 MOOCs organized by over 500 universities. Learning designers orchestrate MOOC content to engage learners at scale and retain interest by carefully mixing videos, lectures, readings, quizzes, and discussions. Universally, far fewer people actually participate in MOOCs than originally sign up…

A fundamental aspect of statistical inference is representation of real-world data using statistical models. This article analyzes students' articulations of statistical models and modeling during their first steps in making informal statistical inferences. An integrated modeling approach (IMA) was designed and implemented to help students…

First- to second-year retention rates are one metric reported by colleges and universities to convey institutional success to a variety of external constituents. But how much of a retention rate is institutional inputs, and how much can be understood by examining student inputs? The authors utilize multi-year, multi-institutional data to examine…

We report an experiment designed to provide a qualitative contrast between knowledge-limited versions of mixed-state and variable-resources (VR) models of visual change detection. The key data pattern is that observers often respond "same" on big-change trials, while simultaneously being able to discriminate between same and small-change…

Two visual-world eye-tracking experiments investigated the role of prediction in the processing of repair disfluencies (e.g., "The chef reached for some salt uh I mean some ketchup ..."). Experiment 1 showed that listeners were more likely to fixate a critical distractor item (e.g., "pepper") during the processing of repair…