ERIC Number: ED675661
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2025
Pages: 11
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: 0000-00-00
Predicting Student Success with Heterogeneous Graph Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models
Anca Muresan; Mihaela Cardei; Ionut Cardei
International Educational Data Mining Society, Paper presented at the International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM) (18th, Palermo, Italy, Jul 20-23, 2025)
Early identification of student success is crucial for enabling timely interventions, reducing dropout rates, and promoting on-time graduation. In educational settings, AI-powered systems have become essential for predicting student performance due to their advanced analytical capabilities. However, effectively leveraging diverse student data to uncover latent and complex patterns remains a key challenge. While prior studies have explored this area, the potential of dynamic data features and multi-category entities has been largely overlooked. To address this gap, we propose a framework that integrates heterogeneous graph deep learning models to enhance early and continuous student performance prediction, using traditional machine learning algorithms for comparison. Our approach employs a graph metapath structure and incorporates dynamic assessment features, which progressively influence the student success prediction task. Experiments on the Open University Learning Analytics (OULA) dataset demonstrate promising results, achieving a 68.6% validation F1 score with only 7% of the semester completed, and reaching up to 89.5% near the semester's end. Our approach outperforms top machine learning models by 4.7% in validation F1 score during the critical early 7% of the semester, underscoring the value of dynamic features and heterogeneous graph representations in student success prediction. [For the complete proceedings, see ED675583.]
Descriptors: Artificial Intelligence, At Risk Students, Learning Analytics, Technology Uses in Education, Prediction, Graphs, Models, Success, Student Characteristics, College Students
International Educational Data Mining Society. e-mail: admin@educationaldatamining.org; Web site: https://educationaldatamining.org/conferences/
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A

Peer reviewed
