Predicting student performance using educational data is a significant area of machine learning research. However, class imbalance in datasets and the challenge of developing interpretable models can hinder accuracy. This study compares different variations of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) combined with classification…

Place-based initiatives often use resident surveys to inform and evaluate interventions. Sampling based on well-defined sampling frames is important but challenging for initiatives that target subpopulations. Databases that enumerate total population counts can produce overinclusive sampling frames, resulting in costly outreach to ineligible…

Probabilistic machine learning increasingly informs critical decisions in medicine, economics, politics, and beyond. To aid the development of trust in these decisions, we develop a taxonomy delineating where trust in an analysis can break down: (1) in the translation of real-world goals to goals on a particular set of training data, (2) in the…

This paper demonstrated how to apply Machine Learning (ML) techniques to analyze student interaction data collected in an online mathematics game. Using a data-driven approach, we examined 1) how different ML algorithms influenced the precision of middle-school students' (N = 359) performance (i.e. posttest math knowledge scores) prediction and 2)…

This paper demonstrated how to apply Machine Learning (ML) techniques to analyze student interaction data collected in an online mathematics game. Using a data-driven approach, we examined: (1) how different ML algorithms influenced the precision of middle-school students' (N = 359) performance (i.e. posttest math knowledge scores) prediction; and…

Background: The importance of high school completion for jobs and postsecondary opportunities is well- documented. Combined with federal laws where high school graduation rate is a core performance indicator, school systems and states face pressure to actively monitor and assess high school completion. This proposal employs machine learning…

This paper demonstrates how to apply Machine Learning (ML) techniques to analyze student interaction data collected in an online mathematics game. We examined: (1) how different ML algorithms influenced the precision of middle-school students' (N = 359) performance prediction; and (2) what types of in-game features were associated with student…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) admit unconfounded design-based inference--randomization largely justifies the assumptions underlying statistical effect estimates--but often have limited sample sizes. However, researchers may have access to big observational data on covariates and outcomes from RCT non-participants. For example, data from A/B…

A method for drawing inferences from complex samples is based on Rubin's approach to missing data in survey research. Standard procedures for drawing such inferences do not apply when the variables of interest are not observed directly, but must be inferred from secondary random variables which depend on the variables of interest stochastically.…