A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors…

Two sophisticated--autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), straight-line regression--and two naive--simple average, monthly average--forecasting techniques were used to forecast monthly circulation totals of 34 public libraries. Comparisons of forecasts and actual totals revealed that ARIMA and monthly average methods had smallest mean…

Four commonly employed procedures were repeatedly applied to computer-simulated samples to provide comparative data pertaining to two questions: (a) which procedure can be expected to produce and equation that yields the most accurate predictions for the population, and (b) which procedure is most likely to identify the optimal set of independent…

Should one be more confident when predicting the whole (or an event based on a larger sample) from the part (or an event based on a smaller sample) than when predicting the reverse? The relevant literature on judgment under uncertainty argues that such predictions are symmetrical but that, as an empirical matter, people often fail to appreciate…

Describes and evaluates a circuitless flow model for forecasting future student attributes and enrollment projections, compared with a simple Markov chain model. Data from a study of secondary students are used to illustrate the analytical methodologies and to contrast results of the Markov chain and circuitless flow models. (JG)

The scientist who uses the experimental form does so in order to explain that which is verified through prediction. The prerequisites for prediction include a universe that is ordered, stable, independent, and knowable. Some assumptions of the predictive argument with respect to communication research are: the operating elements of the message are…

This paper discusses two approaches that are well adapted to school district enrollment forecasting and related planning studies. The author focuses in turn on two enrollment forecasting methods--the Analytical Simulation Approach, and the Modified Cohort Survival Approach. After briefly describing each forecasting method, he presents a short case…

Rebuts the claims of Trusheim and Crouse, made in an earlier issue, that Scholastic Aptitude Test scores are no more effective predictors of college success than is high school class rank. Discusses inaccuracies in the data used by Trusheim and Crouse and points out errors in their analyses. (PGD)

Discusses what librarians have written about futures research and examines the application of various methods of such research in librarianship. An extensive bibliography is included. (CHC)

The National Center for Education Statistics supported this conference as a first step in a dialogue among forecasters to benefit all in the field. Fifty forecasters representing 20 different federal agencies attended the day-long session. Objectives of the conference include: (1) to bring forecasters together for a forum to share information on…

Twenty-nine community characteristics were studied to determine which were statistically most useful as predictors of per-pupil Federal aid to the 169 school districts of Connecticut. Three regression models were developed using community traits as predictors of Federal aid allocations. Cross-validation of regression models to predict future…

Four methods were used to forecast monthly circulation totals in 15 midwestern academic libraries: dummy time-series regression, lagged time-series regression, simple average (straight-line forecasting), monthly average (naive forecasting). In tests of forecasting accuracy, dummy regression method and monthly mean method exhibited smallest average…

A "Research Conference on the Use of Autobiographical Data as Psychological Predictors" brought together 15 research psychologists to discuss means of maximizing the use of autobiographical instruments. The purposes of the conference were to: (1) reveal experiences, statistical data, and psychological insights developed through research and the…

The focus of the session summarized in this paper was on how postsecondary educational institutions can better anticipate the future of higher education by using the "alternative futures approach to planning" model. The alternative futures model processes the best available information obtainable so that plausible alternative futures in…

This project is the sixth in a series of studies designed to validate the Training and Development Benefit Forecasting Method (BFM) sponsored by the Training and Development Research Center (TDRC) at the University of Minnesota. The purpose of this study was to validate the BFM's ability to forecast the benefits of an organization development…