Objective: This study examines how accurately a small set of short-term academic indicators can approximate long-term outcomes of community college students so that decision-makers can take informed actions based on those indicators to evaluate the current progress of large-scale reform efforts on long-term outcomes, which in practice will not be…

This post is one in a series highlighting MDRC's methodological work. Contributors discuss the refinement and practical use of research methods being employed across the organization. Across policy domains, practitioners and researchers are benefiting from a trend of greater access to both more detailed and frequent data and the increased…

Educational institutions and governing practices are increasingly augmented with digital database technologies that function as new kinds of policy instruments. This article surveys and maps the landscape of digital policy instrumentation in education and provides two detailed case studies of new digital data systems. The Learning Curve is a…

As the U.S. population ages and policy changes emerge, such as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, the U.S. will experience a significant shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs). Many colleges and universities are attempting to increase the size of nursing cohorts to respond to this imminent shortage. Notwithstanding a 2.6%…

Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…

This article introduces the concept of a prediction interval in a gambling context.

Kaminsky and Nelson's method for estimating the times of future "success" from the times of earlier "successes" in the same sample is discussed in terms of its potential applications to long term psychological treatment, research, or training programs. (Author/JKS)

Models proposed by Cleary, Thorndike, Cole, Linn, Einhorn and Bass, Darlington, and Gross and Su for analyzing bias in the use of tests in a selection strategy are surveyed. Several additional models are also introduced. The purpose is to describe, compare, contrast, and evaluate these models while extracting such useful ideas as may be found in…

Examines a statistical model in which the users of an online system continually update their estimated probability of success, and quit or continue the search according to the expected utility of each action. The implications for search strategies are discussed. (Author/EM)

This package introduces college students to the elements of the Prince System, a widely used system for making political forecasts and developing political strategies. Designed to be completed in two to three weeks, the two exercises enable students to (1) identify political issues that the Prince System can help them understand, (2) determine the…

A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

This review is one in a series intended to develop methods which maximize the use of the existing scientific literature as a basis for predicting human performance. It is concerned with sensory performance in target detection, defined in terms of the "probability of detection" of a flash of light. Two conditions of detection are…

A descriptive model of how people make judgments under ambiguity is proposed. Two factors are reflected in the model: (1) the amount of ambiguity, which affects the size of the simulation, and (2) one's attitudes toward ambiguity. The model is tested in four experiments using individual and group analyses. (Author/LMO)

Describes a class experiment illustrating students' illusions about their own mortality (often referred to as "unique invulnerability"). The students received information, culled from actuarial tables, concerning age and mortality rates. The students consistently overestimated their own age of death even when told they would do so. (MJP)

A Bayesian prediction strategy is outlined in which antecedent measures are divided into two subgroups. One subgroup is used to discriminate among criterion groups, the second to provide normal linear predictions for each group. Individualized regression constants are subsequently obtained by computing probabilities of group membership from the…