This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

This study examined the relationship between energy expenditure and wrist accelerometer output during walking in persons with and without Down syndrome (DS). Energy expenditure in metabolic equivalent units (METs) and activity-count rate were respectively measured with portable spirometry and a uniaxial wrist accelerometer in 17 persons with DS…

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors…

Should one be more confident when predicting the whole (or an event based on a larger sample) from the part (or an event based on a smaller sample) than when predicting the reverse? The relevant literature on judgment under uncertainty argues that such predictions are symmetrical but that, as an empirical matter, people often fail to appreciate…

In a training situation, the standard procedures for predicting performance entail long delays between the request for a predictive instrument and its delivery. Methods were developed for constructing psychological prediction instruments at the time of the request, rather than waiting for the maturation of the criterion data. The two synthetic…

This is the text of a colloquium of recent computer technology on psychometrics, particularly as practiced in the University of Washington's Bureau of Testing. Seven stages of career guidance are enumerated: (1) deciding what to measure; (2) developing the measures; (3) administering the measures; (4) scoring the measures; (5) weighting the scored…

A tailored testing model employing the beta distribution, whose mean equals the difficulty of an item and whose variance is approximately equal to the sampling variance of the item difficulty, and employing conditional item difficulties, is proposed. (Author)

In their meta-analysis of clinical versus statistical prediction models, Aegisdottir et al. (this issue) extended previous findings of statistical-method superiority across such variables as clinicians' experience and familiarity with data. In this reaction, the authors are particularly interested in violence prediction, which yields the greatest…

This package introduces college students to the elements of the Prince System, a widely used system for making political forecasts and developing political strategies. Designed to be completed in two to three weeks, the two exercises enable students to (1) identify political issues that the Prince System can help them understand, (2) determine the…

This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social,…

The objective of this study was to develop an economic approach to the forecasting of allied health manpower in markets in the State of California. The health manpower categories considered included: (1) Medical technology, (2) occupational therapy, (3) dietetic and nutritional services, (4) physical therapy, (5) health administration, (6)…

The suppressor variable, a variable wholly uncorrelated with a criterion, but which nevertheless improves prediction because of its relationship with a predictor, is critically examined. For a suppressor so defined, formal identities are shown with part, partial, and multiple correlational procedures. It is demonstrated that if maximum prediction…

The use of mathematical models in the experimental analysis of behavior has increased over the years, and they offer several advantages. Mathematical models require theorists to be precise and unambiguous, often allowing comparisons of competing theories that sound similar when stated in words. Sometimes different mathematical models may make…

Research was undertaken to develop a system for predicting completion time in a self-paced training course. The hypotheses were developed that: 1) course content-related instruments would be better predictors of completion time than general aptitude measures; and that 2) a linear predictive function would provide the best description of the…

A test was developed to predict job satisfaction on the basis of psychological needs satisfaction. A short questionnaire consisting of six multiple choice questions was designed to measure (1) expressed degree of need satisfaction among 14 pre-selected psychological needs (job security, outdoor work, good pay, competition, esteem, leadership,…