Assessing students' conceptions related to independence of events and determining probabilities from a sample space has been the focus of research in probability education for over 40 years. While we know a lot from past studies about predictable ways students may reason with well-known tasks, developing a diagnostic assessment that can be used by…

Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These…

Tossing a fair coin 1000 times can have an unexpected result. In the activities presented here, players keep track of the accumulated total for heads and tails after each toss, noting which player is in the lead or whether the players are tied. The winner is the player who was in the lead for the higher number of turns over the course of the game.…

The study explores the development of 11-year-old students' informal inference about random bunny hops through student talk and use of computer simulation tools. Our aim in this paper is to draw on dialogic theory to explain how students make shifts in perspective, from intuition-based reasoning to more powerful, formal ways of using probabilistic…

"Probability is a difficult concept to teach, because children and adults find it counterintuitive." This is impetus to consider the detailed planning of a set of lessons with a "mixed", in many senses, group of fourth graders. Can the use of prior experience, and the knowledge associated with that experience, make probability a concept that is…

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, "TinkerPlots." Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of…

In the Slovenian National Mathematics Curriculum the probability contents are first mentioned in the ninth grade of elementary school (at the age of 14), yet they are introduced informally, only in some first triad textbook sets. The researchers disagree as to the age of children at which they are able to deal with certain probability contents. In…

The classroom activity described here allows mathematically mature students to explore the role of mean, median and mode in a decision-making environment. While students discover the importance of choosing a measure of central tendency, their understanding of probability distributions, maximization, and prediction is reinforced through active…

This article introduces prediction as a useful tool to promote mathematical reasoning. First, the article addresses prediction expectations in state standards and gives examples. It also provides a classroom example and activities to illustrate what prediction can look like and how it can serve as a building block for the development of students'…

The national lottery is often portrayed as a game of pure chance with no room for strategy. This misperception seems to stem from the application of probability instead of expectancy considerations, and can be utilized to introduce the statistical concept of expectation.

This article introduces the concept of a prediction interval in a gambling context.

Binary outcome data are common in research and evaluation. They are often analyzed using logistic regression, and results of these analyses are often reported in the form of odds ratios (ORs). However, ORs are not directly interpretable in the metric commonly used in policy-relevant discussions, which concerns probabilities. ORs are unfamiliar to…

Discusses the probability of seeing a tire explode or disintegrate while traveling down the highway. Suggests that a person observing 10 hours a day would see a failure on the average of once every 300 years. (MVL)

Related research suggests that children may show some simple understanding of event covariations by the early elementary school years. The present experiments use a rule analysis methodology to investigate covariation judgments of children in this age range. In Experiment 1, children in second, third and fourth grade judged covariations on 12…

Past research indicates poor agreement about strategies people use to assess covariation between events. This research investigates method of assessment as one possible source of this low consensus. A set of problems was developed in such a way that different judgment rules would produce different decisions about the relationships between events.…